Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$934.0 million, led by health care, materials, information technology, and offset by communication services, industrials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$934.0 million, led by health care, materials, information technology, and offset by communication services, industrials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software Technology.


Northbound Flows (Mar 22nd): CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software

<ul>
<li>There are 28 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.</li>
<li>We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.</li>
<li>There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.</li>
</ul>


There are 28 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.
There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.


CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

China

Thunder Software Technology Co., Ltd. operates as a software development company. The Company provides smart mobile software development, automotive smart software development, and other services. Thunder Software Technology offers services worldwide.

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Thunder Software Technology (300496 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Mar 22nd): CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

The June rebalance of the CSI300 Index will have 28 changes, a large sector skew, one-way turnover of 4.11% and a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

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