Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 16 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.


CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ETFs.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. </li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. 
We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.


Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 4Q2023 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 4Q2023 were US$20,921 million and holdings were US$302 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances, Sungrow Power Supply.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 4Q2023 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 4Q2023 were US$20,921 million and holdings were US$302 billion.
We highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances, Sungrow Power Supply.


Northbound Flows (4Q2023): $20bn Outflows in 4Q

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

China

Sieyuan Electric Company Limited manufactures and markets power supply and converting equipment as well as high voltage electrical apparatus and high voltage monitoring instruments.  The Company's  main products include arc suppression coils, variable frequency power sources, lightning arrester on-line monitoring instruments, and anti-disturbance test instruments.

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Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A (002028 CH)

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 1Q2025 and highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (4Q2023): $20bn Outflows in 4Q

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 4Q2023 and highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances, Sungrow Power Supply.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

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