Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> reported solid revenue growth of 33% YoY for Q1 2023, but profitability disappointed our expectations coming in a 26.5% YoY(vs. &gt;50% our expectation).</li>
<li>The primary reason for the disappointment was Bodegas W&amp;H coming in with a 6mn peso profit in Q1 due to seasonality, one-offs, and cost increases (Vs. 100mn peso Q42022 profit).</li>
<li>While trends remain strong on the core business, with the stock trading at 8.3x/7.1x FY23e/24e, with a 4.7/5.5% dividend yield, Bodega's performance is an eyesore that we will monitor. </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported solid revenue growth of 33% YoY for Q1 2023, but profitability disappointed our expectations coming in a 26.5% YoY(vs. &gt;50% our expectation).
The primary reason for the disappointment was Bodegas W&amp;H coming in with a 6mn peso profit in Q1 due to seasonality, one-offs, and cost increases (Vs. 100mn peso Q42022 profit).
While trends remain strong on the core business, with the stock trading at 8.3x/7.1x FY23e/24e, with a 4.7/5.5% dividend yield, Bodega's performance is an eyesore that we will monitor. 


Keepers Holdings: Q1 2023 Concall Highlights, Building Into Better Quarters

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<li>It's barely three weeks since the annual results in April, and now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> will declare their Q1 2023 results mid-May. </li>
<li>Both results are expected around the 14th/15th of May, with a confirmation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> holding its post-results call on the 17th of May. </li>
<li>We expect stellar Q1 results and good guidance for 2023 for both companies. </li>
</ul>


It's barely three weeks since the annual results in April, and now Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) / The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) will declare their Q1 2023 results mid-May. 
Both results are expected around the 14th/15th of May, with a confirmation of Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) holding its post-results call on the 17th of May. 
We expect stellar Q1 results and good guidance for 2023 for both companies. 


Shakeys Pizza/Keepers Holdings Q1 2023 Results: What to Expect?

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<li>Over the past 12 months, we have written insights on 14 stocks in the small/mid-cap space with high dividend yields, inexpensive valuations, and a great margin of safety. </li>
<li>We re-examine these to shortlist 3-4 names of our highest conviction amidst the current macroeconomic climate.</li>
<li>Our high conviction shortlist includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/water-oasis-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17348:1" rel="noopener">Water Oasis (1161 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perfect-medical-health-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3639:1" rel="noopener">Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taste-gourmet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27339:1" rel="noopener">Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Over the past 12 months, we have written insights on 14 stocks in the small/mid-cap space with high dividend yields, inexpensive valuations, and a great margin of safety. 
We re-examine these to shortlist 3-4 names of our highest conviction amidst the current macroeconomic climate.
Our high conviction shortlist includes Water Oasis (1161 HK), Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Taste Gourmet (8371 HK).


Shortlist of High Conviction Ideas - Income, Value, Margin of Safety

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> recent move of +24% (3 months) was catalyzed by the dividend payout ratio (to 50%) increase and a solid Q4 2022 on the cards. </li>
<li>Post the move, the stock trades at 8.4x/6.6x FY22/23e. The dividend yield for FY23e/FY24e is 6.0%/7.6% ( based on a 50% payout). 8% of the market cap is net cash.</li>
<li>We expect the next catalyst to be when the company reports its earnings ( probably the second week of April 2023). </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) recent move of +24% (3 months) was catalyzed by the dividend payout ratio (to 50%) increase and a solid Q4 2022 on the cards. 
Post the move, the stock trades at 8.4x/6.6x FY22/23e. The dividend yield for FY23e/FY24e is 6.0%/7.6% ( based on a 50% payout). 8% of the market cap is net cash.
We expect the next catalyst to be when the company reports its earnings ( probably the second week of April 2023). 


Keepers: Thoughts on the Move Up, More to Come Easy Double from Here

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM)</a> trades at 7.1x/5.6x FY22e/FY23e on revised numbers (including earnings from the W&amp;H acquisition) and has 10% of its market cap in net cash. </li>
<li>The outlook from the conference call was bullish, and the Q4 2022 revenue growth trend is expected to be similar to the 9M2022 (34% YoY) and future structural teens growth.</li>
<li>At a 300 mn USD market cap, you get a virtual monopoly (&gt;70% marketshare by volume) of the imported spirits business with sole distributorship of the most recognizable brands. </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) trades at 7.1x/5.6x FY22e/FY23e on revised numbers (including earnings from the W&amp;H acquisition) and has 10% of its market cap in net cash. 
The outlook from the conference call was bullish, and the Q4 2022 revenue growth trend is expected to be similar to the 9M2022 (34% YoY) and future structural teens growth.
At a 300 mn USD market cap, you get a virtual monopoly (&gt;70% marketshare by volume) of the imported spirits business with sole distributorship of the most recognizable brands. 


Keepers Holdings: Highlights From The Q3 2022 Call / A Multibagger In The Making

Philippines

Keepers Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of liquor such as wine, spirits, and other beverages. Keepers Holdings serves customers in Philippine.

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The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)

Keepers Holdings: Q1 2023 Concall Highlights, Building Into Better Quarters

Keepers Holdings, the largest distributor of imported liquor (67% Mkt share) in the Philippines trades at 8.4x/7.1x FY23e/24e with 4.7%/5.5% div...

Sameer Taneja

Shakeys Pizza/Keepers Holdings Q1 2023 Results: What to Expect?

Shakey's Pizza and Keepers Holdings declare Q1 2023 results next week. We discuss what to expect from the results, current valuations and summarize...

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Ideas - Income, Value, Margin of Safety

We like Water Oasis (1161 HK), Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) as the businesses are...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers: Thoughts on the Move Up, More to Come Easy Double from Here

Post the rally; Keepers Holdings trades at 8.4x/6.6x FY22/23e. The dividend yield for FY23e/FY24e is 6.0%/7.6% ( based on a 50% payout). 8% of the...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings: Highlights From The Q3 2022 Call / A Multibagger In The Making

Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) trades at 7.1x/5.6x FY22e/FY23e on revised numbers (including earnings from the W&H acquisition) and has 10% of...

Sameer Taneja

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