Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.</li>
<li>We update results declared for Q3 by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.
We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.
We update results declared for Q3 by Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM), Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) and DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - November 2024

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>The Keepers Holdings is a Philippine spirit importer and distributor trading at PHP1.73 per share with a 7.6x FY24E P/E and a 6% dividend yield.</li><li>Despite its success in growing volumes at an 18% CAGR over the past decade, imported spirits still represent a small portion of the Philippine market, indicating significant growth potential.</li><li>KEEPR's asset-light business model and 50% payout ratio suggest room for further growth, with the potential for book value per share and dividends to compound at 20% annually. The company's valuation is seen as undervalued at its current multiple, with a more appropriate 15x P/E multiple projected.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

The Keepers Holdings is a Philippine spirit importer and distributor trading at PHP1.73 per share with a 7.6x FY24E P/E and a 6% dividend yield.Despite its success in growing volumes at an 18% CAGR over the past decade, imported spirits still represent a small portion of the Philippine market, indicating significant growth potential.KEEPR's asset-light business model and 50% payout ratio suggest room for further growth, with the potential for book value per share and dividends to compound at 20% annually. The company's valuation is seen as undervalued at its current multiple, with a more appropriate 15x P/E multiple projected.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) - Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> reported Q3 2024 revenues/profits of 7.5%/14.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they guided an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024, the high-season quarter.</li>
<li>The company also announced the 100% acquisition of beer distributor Booze On-Line Inc., having exclusive distribution rights to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-adr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anheuser-Busch InBev's</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:864:1" rel="noopener"> (BUD US)</a> beer portfolio in the Philippines.  </li>
<li>Trading at 9.2x FY24 PE, net cash, &gt;20% ROE, and a 5% dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption. </li>
</ul>



Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported Q3 2024 revenues/profits of 7.5%/14.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they guided an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024, the high-season quarter.
The company also announced the 100% acquisition of beer distributor Booze On-Line Inc., having exclusive distribution rights to Anheuser-Busch InBev's (BUD US) beer portfolio in the Philippines.  
Trading at 9.2x FY24 PE, net cash, &gt;20% ROE, and a 5% dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption. 


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Q3 2024 Concall: Exciting Acquisition and Q4 Season Up Ahead

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> reported a stellar H1 2024, with revenue up 19% YoY and profits up 23% YoY, led by volume growth of 22% YoY.</li>
<li>Gross margins were maintained at 28%, and operating margins were 20.6%. The company remained net cash (2.7 bn pesos) despite distributing two years worth of dividends in H1 2024</li>
<li>Trading at 7.7x PE, a 6% dividend yield, and with the structural tailwinds of premiumization in alcohol, we love the name. </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported a stellar H1 2024, with revenue up 19% YoY and profits up 23% YoY, led by volume growth of 22% YoY.
Gross margins were maintained at 28%, and operating margins were 20.6%. The company remained net cash (2.7 bn pesos) despite distributing two years worth of dividends in H1 2024
Trading at 7.7x PE, a 6% dividend yield, and with the structural tailwinds of premiumization in alcohol, we love the name. 


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): Solid Q2 2024, >20% Growth, >20% ROCE, <8x PE, Net Cash, 6% Div Yield

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM)</a> is a play on the imported liquor distribution business in the Philippines, with a &gt;74% marketshare conservatively growing at 12-15% CAGR.</li>
<li>Trading at 11.5x/10.0x FY21/22 PE with 35% of the market capitalization in cash ( implying an ex-cash PE of 7.5x), the stock is cheap with a significant margin of safety. </li>
<li>Value enhancing asset injection angle with potential for the chairman Lucio Co to inject his Bodegas William and Humbers (W&amp;H) stake into the listco.</li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) is a play on the imported liquor distribution business in the Philippines, with a &gt;74% marketshare conservatively growing at 12-15% CAGR.
Trading at 11.5x/10.0x FY21/22 PE with 35% of the market capitalization in cash ( implying an ex-cash PE of 7.5x), the stock is cheap with a significant margin of safety. 
Value enhancing asset injection angle with potential for the chairman Lucio Co to inject his Bodegas William and Humbers (W&amp;H) stake into the listco.


Keepers Holdings: Cheap Consumption Multibagger in the Philippines

Philippines

Keepers Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of liquor such as wine, spirits, and other beverages. Keepers Holdings serves customers in Philippine.

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The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - November 2024

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names for the Philippines with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin...

Sameer Taneja