Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

We revisit our thesis from early July when we argued that monetary policy was the primary driver of the differentiation within EM currencies. Based on current correlations, we modify the statement to say that the thesis now applies to most but not all currencies. We identify the outliers and connect them with our recent trade recommendation to buy the Chilean peso against the South African rand.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We revisit our thesis from early July when we argued that monetary policy was the primary driver of the differentiation within EM currencies. Based on current correlations, we modify the statement to say that the thesis now applies to most but not all currencies. We identify the outliers and connect them with our recent trade recommendation to buy the Chilean peso against the South African rand.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Still Driving FX Returns?

The Chilean central bank delivered a hawkish surprise at its meeting this week as it reacted to the sharp rise in economic activity and inflation expectations on the back of the strong monetary and fiscal accommodations. The resulting rise in short-end rates should be supportive for the currency in our view, even though the political noise going into the presidential election in November may keep its volatility high.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Chilean central bank delivered a hawkish surprise at its meeting this week as it reacted to the sharp rise in economic activity and inflation expectations on the back of the strong monetary and fiscal accommodations. The resulting rise in short-end rates should be supportive for the currency in our view, even though the political noise going into the presidential election in November may keep its volatility high.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Chilean Central Bank Boosts the Peso with Aggressive Rate Hike

After being one of the best performing EM currencies this year, the tide has turned for the South African rand in our view. We expect headwinds from the growth outlook worsening as a result of the July riots and a slow vaccination pace. With the central bank likely to stay on hold through 2021, the currency's carry should drop a well. Moreover, the tailwind from commodities may also be behind.

After being one of the best performing EM currencies this year, the tide has turned for the South African rand in our view. We expect headwinds from the growth outlook worsening as a result of the July riots and a slow vaccination pace. With the central bank likely to stay on hold through 2021, the currency's carry should drop a well. Moreover, the tailwind from commodities may also be behind.

FX Dashboard: South African Rand’s Recent Underperformance to Continue

We reiterate our view of the US dollar staying in a range despite the brief breach last week. We expand our baseline view to incorporate two risk scenarios, equivalent to the two ends of the dollar smile. From the point of view of EM currencies, the best-case scenario is our baseline view of the dollar staying rangebound. We also expound on the recent increase in the correlation between commodities and EM currencies and what it means for EM FX.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We reiterate our view of the US dollar staying in a range despite the brief breach last week. We expand our baseline view to incorporate two risk scenarios, equivalent to the two ends of the dollar smile. From the point of view of EM currencies, the best-case scenario is our baseline view of the dollar staying rangebound. We also expound on the recent increase in the correlation between commodities and EM currencies and what it means for EM FX.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: US Dollar, Commodities, and EM Currencies

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

US Treasury yields and the Dollar, perhaps unsurprisingly, have risen in the wake of today’s strong US labour market report. However, we think it would be a stretch to argue that markets have “hard-baked” in their view that the Federal Reserve will announce its tapering plans potentially as early as the Jackson Jackson Hole Symposium on 26-28 August. A case perhaps of once bitten twice shy and for good reason in our view.We have been moderately bullish the GBP/EUR cross since late-June and the cross briefly traded above 1.18 this afternoon, its strongest level since February 2020. We maintain a positive outlook in the remainder of Q3. The Kiwi Dollar has been the fourth strongest major currency since the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on 16th June. The Kiwi Dollar NEER has so far in August appreciated about 0.9%, confounding historical patterns which on average in 2010-2019 saw the currency weaken 0.9% in the month of August. However, the currency may not fare quite as well in Q4, in our view – the theme of our next FIRMS report.Conversely, the Thai Baht has underperformed but it’s not just been a tourism issue.

US Treasury yields and the Dollar, perhaps unsurprisingly, have risen in the wake of today’s strong US labour market report. However, we think it would be a stretch to argue that markets have “hard-baked” in their view that the Federal Reserve will announce its tapering plans potentially as early as the Jackson Jackson Hole Symposium on 26-28 August. A case perhaps of once bitten twice shy and for good reason in our view.We have been moderately bullish the GBP/EUR cross since late-June and the cross briefly traded above 1.18 this afternoon, its strongest level since February 2020. We maintain a positive outlook in the remainder of Q3. The Kiwi Dollar has been the fourth strongest major currency since the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on 16th June. The Kiwi Dollar NEER has so far in August appreciated about 0.9%, confounding historical patterns which on average in 2010-2019 saw the currency weaken 0.9% in the month of August. However, the currency may not fare quite as well in Q4, in our view – the theme of our next FIRMS report.Conversely, the Thai Baht has underperformed but it’s not just been a tourism issue.

Thailand

The Thai baht is the official currency of Thailand. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

THB (USDTHB CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Still Driving FX Returns?

We modify our thesis from early July when we argued that monetary policy was the primary driver of the differentiation within EM currencies to say...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Chilean Central Bank Boosts the Peso with Aggressive Rate Hike

The Chilean central bank delivered a hawkish surprise resulting in a rise in short-end rates, which should be supportive for the currency, even...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: South African Rand’s Recent Underperformance to Continue

We expect the South African rand to lag with the growth outlook worsening due to the July riots and a slow vaccination pace, the central bank...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: US Dollar, Commodities, and EM Currencies

We discuss our base-case view for the US dollar along with the risk scenarios and their implications for EM currencies. We also discuss the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Focus: USD, GBP, NZD and THB

US yields and USD have risen following strong US labour mkt report but still not clear markets expect Fed to announce tapering plans in coming...

Olivier Desbarres

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)