Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

<ul>
<li>The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. </li>
<li>Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.</li>
<li>PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.</li>
</ul>


The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. 
Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.
PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.


Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

<ul>
<li>In line with my view, the US dollar remains strong, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia providing additional safe-haven bids and putting pressure on EM currencies. </li>
<li>Among EM currencies, the worst hit are Central European currencies as the war has created headwinds to growth in the region especially due to the spike in energy prices.</li>
<li>Authorities in the eurozone and Central Europe have taken steps to mitigate the impact on their economies but the proximity to the war means that some risk premium will remain.</li>
</ul>


In line with my view, the US dollar remains strong, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia providing additional safe-haven bids and putting pressure on EM currencies. 
Among EM currencies, the worst hit are Central European currencies as the war has created headwinds to growth in the region especially due to the spike in energy prices.
Authorities in the eurozone and Central Europe have taken steps to mitigate the impact on their economies but the proximity to the war means that some risk premium will remain.


In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.
I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

<ul>
<li>With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.</li>
<li>EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.</li>
<li>Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.</li>
</ul>


With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.
EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.
Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.


Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

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Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

Adding to the economic woes from Russia's aggression, the Hungarian forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion

Russia's invasion has given another leg up to the US dollar, weighing on EM currencies, particularly in Central Europe despite the steps they have...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 25 of the 35 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

EM currencies have weathered the dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)