Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from Exxon Mobil.</li>
<li>The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.</li>
<li>Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil.
The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.
Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. 


Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

<ul>
<li>Refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.</li>
<li>The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. </li>
<li>Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. </li>
</ul>


Refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil (XOM US).
The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. 
Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is still expected to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> minorities sooner rather than later</li>
<li>Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.</li>
<li>APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   


Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

<ul>
<li>Back on the 7 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. </li>
<li>The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 


Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>'s partial MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: Xingda International (1899 HK)'s partial MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) , Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) and China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

Thailand

Thaicom PCL operates satellite communication business. The Company operates and provides satellite transponder services. Thaicom also provides Internet, satellite uplink/downlink, and telephone network services.

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Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)

Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Without a quantum shift in Esso's fundamentals over the next 6-8 months, this is a takeunder. A 17% fall is excessive. Shareholders should ignore...

David Blennerhassett

Esso Thailand: Bangchak Corp's Takeunder

Without a high degree of clarity on Esso's net debt and working capital adjustments, this is an avoid for arb investors. From an equity valuation...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

I'd reverse the stub here and short Intouch, and long AIS. I see no obvious trade on Thaicom. Watch for the special dividend from Intouch.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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