CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 118% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 23%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 118% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 23%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>KTX expects the SET Index to rise, with the resistance at 1,405/1,416 points and the support at 1,352/1,335 points.</li><li>Positive factors include the continued buying of equities by foreign investors given that the SET remains a laggard and a good safe haven after most global equity markets hit all-time highs.</li><li>Meanwhile, the downside risks to the economic slowdown may increase again after the world's major central banks continued to send signals about maintaining policy interest rates at a high level. </li></ul>

KTX expects the SET Index to rise, with the resistance at 1,405/1,416 points and the support at 1,352/1,335 points.Positive factors include the continued buying of equities by foreign investors given that the SET remains a laggard and a good safe haven after most global equity markets hit all-time highs.Meanwhile, the downside risks to the economic slowdown may increase again after the world's major central banks continued to send signals about maintaining policy interest rates at a high level. 

Monthly Report: March 2024 - Recommended Stocks in March

<ul><li>The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.</li><li>Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.</li><li>This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).</li></ul>

The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The recent share price pullback sees <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> </strong>trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)</li>
<li>Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)
Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.
Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin


TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Monthly Report: March 2024 - Recommended Stocks in March

Positive factors include the continued buying of equities by foreign investors given that the SET remains a laggard and a good safe haven after...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR)

Krungthai XSpring

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

I'd look to buy PTT outright; or hedge 40% with PTTEP (worth 36% of NAV); 15% of PTT Oil (worth 14% of NAV), together with O&G names to short.

David Blennerhassett

TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0 (from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22. TOP’s 3Q22 net...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)