Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).</li>
<li>Initially we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-3-changes-likely-banpu-still-not-safe-from-deletion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected only three changes</a> but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-banpu-vs-sawad-has-to-be-monitored-closely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised our expectations</a> and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).
Initially we expected only three changes but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we revised our expectations and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.
All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.


Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The prolonged interest rate upcycle and USD appreciation pose downside risks to global oil demand and crude oil prices.</li><li>Moreover, the initiation of new refining capacity is pressuring energy stock prices, especially those in the refinery sector.</li><li>Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E. </li></ul>

The prolonged interest rate upcycle and USD appreciation pose downside risks to global oil demand and crude oil prices.Moreover, the initiation of new refining capacity is pressuring energy stock prices, especially those in the refinery sector.Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E. 

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - Weak 2Q24E Earnings for Refineries

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 121% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 20%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 121% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 20%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 45

<ul><li>Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided.</li><li>A buying force quickly targeted large caps, such as banking, energy, finance, transportation, food and commerce stocks.</li><li>Meanwhile, foreign investors’ turn to buying helped the index move in positive territory all day, but volume remained light.</li></ul>

Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided.A buying force quickly targeted large caps, such as banking, energy, finance, transportation, food and commerce stocks.Meanwhile, foreign investors’ turn to buying helped the index move in positive territory all day, but volume remained light.

Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Our sector-neutral trade ideas have generated a long-short return of 5.2% in a month which was significantly better than being LONG 4 Expected ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - Weak 2Q24E Earnings for Refineries

Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E.

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

After considering the recent methodology changes (relaxing the liquidity criteria), we believe BJC will be added in June 2024 and that could cause...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Technical Analysis - April 23, 2024

Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided. A buying force quickly targeted...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)