Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

<ul>
<li>Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations</li>
<li>Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%</li>
<li>Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish</li>
</ul>


Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations
Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%
Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish


Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

<ul>
<li>August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises</li>
<li>The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?</li>
<li>Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so</li>
</ul>


August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?
Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

<ul>
<li>We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month</li>
<li>What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks</li>
</ul>


We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so</li>
<li>Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam</li>
<li>Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom</li>
</ul>


In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so
Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam
Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

Thailand

Nok Airlines PCL operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry. The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

Asia Aviation PCL owns a budget airline.  The airline offers low fare flights, online booking, hospitality packages, and courier and cargo services. Asia Aviation serves travelers throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Public Company Limited is provider of aviation fuel services including aviation depot and aircraft refueling services at the Bangkok International Airport (Donmuang) and the New Bangkok International Airport at Suvarnabhumi.

WICE Logistics Public Company Limited provides freight shipping services. The Company offers marine freight shipping, air freight shipping and trucking services.

Triple i Logistics Public Company Limited provides logistics services. The Company offers sea and air freight forwarding, warehousing, distribution, shipping, goods transportation, and container depot services. Triple i Logistics serves customers worldwide.

Namyong Terminal PCL is a roll on roll off terminal operator. The Company offers terminal services, car storage areas and warehousing services in Thailand.

Thoresen Thai Agencies PCL is a maritime and commodity-focused business group with Transport, Energy, and Infrastructure businesses in the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's businesses include dry bulk shipping, inter-island petroleum and gas tankering, offshore oil and gas services, coal mining, fertilizer production and distribution, and integrated port and logistics services.

Bangkok Airways Company Limited offers air transportation services. The Company operates flights and airports to various resort destinations in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Japan.

Precious Shipping Public Company Limited is a ship owner providing regional marine shipping services. The Company operates in the tramp freight market sector where its vessels are employed on a time charter as well as voyage charter basis.  Precious Shipping has a network of shipping agents worldwide.

Kiattana Transport PCL provides transportation services.

Air Busan Co., Ltd. operates as an airline company. The Company offers international and domestic flight, hotel, and car booking services. Air busan also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in flight services. Air busan offers services worldwide.

AirAsia X Berhad is a long-haul, low-cost airline based in Malaysia. The Company is an affiliate carrier of the AirAsia Group. AirAsia X offers flights on the Airbus A330-300 aircraft on routes beyond 4 hours flight duration across Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

Skymark Airlines Inc. provides air transportation services.  The Company's services include scheduled flights for passengers and air courier services. Skymark Airlines conducts businesses in Japan.

Icelandair Group hf is a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers scheduled air carrier operations, tourist services and transport operations; buys and sells real estate; and conducts credit operations and other related services.  Icelandair flies between Iceland, Western Europe, and North America.

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

PT Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk provides airline services. The Company offers domestic and international flights, online check in, and associated services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. provides low-fare, non-stop passenger flight services through its fleet of next generation Boeing airplanes.  The company provides domestic flights in Brazil.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

Cebu Air, Inc. operates an airline under the Cebu Pacific Air name in the Philippines. It offers scheduled air travel services to passengers, as well as airport-to-airport cargo services on its domestic and international routes. The company also provides ancillary services, such as cancellation and rebooking options; in-flight merchandising, including sale of duty-free products on international flights; baggage services; and travel-related products and services. As of December 31, 2015, Cebu Air, Inc. operated a fleet of 55 aircraft, which includes 8 Airbus A319, 33 Airbus A320, 6 Airbus A330, and 8 ATR 72-500 aircraft. The company has a strategic alliance with Tigerair. Cebu Air, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Pasay City, the Philippines. Cebu Air, Inc. is a subsidiary of CPAir Holdings, Inc.

Star Flyer Inc. operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry. The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo. Star Flyer also offers shuttle services between key Japanese cities.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

We see mixed signals in June outbound travel activity, and the recovery in domestic activity continued at its modest pace. For value investors,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

The recovery in outbound travel remained strong in May, and domestic activity also continued to improve, though it appears to be losing some...

Tracking Traffic

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