Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels</li>
<li>Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts</li>
</ul>


By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels
Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels
In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

<ul>
<li>Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today</li>
<li>Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism</li>
<li>Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen</li>
</ul>


Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today
Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism
Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen


Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

Thailand

Nok Airlines PCL operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry. The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

Asia Aviation PCL owns a budget airline.  The airline offers low fare flights, online booking, hospitality packages, and courier and cargo services. Asia Aviation serves travelers throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Public Company Limited is provider of aviation fuel services including aviation depot and aircraft refueling services at the Bangkok International Airport (Donmuang) and the New Bangkok International Airport at Suvarnabhumi.

WICE Logistics Public Company Limited provides freight shipping services. The Company offers marine freight shipping, air freight shipping and trucking services.

Triple i Logistics Public Company Limited provides logistics services. The Company offers sea and air freight forwarding, warehousing, distribution, shipping, goods transportation, and container depot services. Triple i Logistics serves customers worldwide.

Namyong Terminal PCL is a roll on roll off terminal operator. The Company offers terminal services, car storage areas and warehousing services in Thailand.

Thoresen Thai Agencies PCL is a maritime and commodity-focused business group with Transport, Energy, and Infrastructure businesses in the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's businesses include dry bulk shipping, inter-island petroleum and gas tankering, offshore oil and gas services, coal mining, fertilizer production and distribution, and integrated port and logistics services.

Bangkok Airways Company Limited offers air transportation services. The Company operates flights and airports to various resort destinations in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Japan.

Precious Shipping Public Company Limited is a ship owner providing regional marine shipping services. The Company operates in the tramp freight market sector where its vessels are employed on a time charter as well as voyage charter basis.  Precious Shipping has a network of shipping agents worldwide.

Kiattana Transport PCL provides transportation services.

Air Busan Co., Ltd. operates as an airline company. The Company offers international and domestic flight, hotel, and car booking services. Air busan also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in flight services. Air busan offers services worldwide.

AirAsia X Berhad is a long-haul, low-cost airline based in Malaysia. The Company is an affiliate carrier of the AirAsia Group. AirAsia X offers flights on the Airbus A330-300 aircraft on routes beyond 4 hours flight duration across Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

Skymark Airlines Inc. provides air transportation services.  The Company's services include scheduled flights for passengers and air courier services. Skymark Airlines conducts businesses in Japan.

Icelandair Group hf is a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers scheduled air carrier operations, tourist services and transport operations; buys and sells real estate; and conducts credit operations and other related services.  Icelandair flies between Iceland, Western Europe, and North America.

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

PT Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk provides airline services. The Company offers domestic and international flights, online check in, and associated services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. provides low-fare, non-stop passenger flight services through its fleet of next generation Boeing airplanes.  The company provides domestic flights in Brazil.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

Cebu Air, Inc. operates an airline under the Cebu Pacific Air name in the Philippines. It offers scheduled air travel services to passengers, as well as airport-to-airport cargo services on its domestic and international routes. The company also provides ancillary services, such as cancellation and rebooking options; in-flight merchandising, including sale of duty-free products on international flights; baggage services; and travel-related products and services. As of December 31, 2015, Cebu Air, Inc. operated a fleet of 55 aircraft, which includes 8 Airbus A319, 33 Airbus A320, 6 Airbus A330, and 8 ATR 72-500 aircraft. The company has a strategic alliance with Tigerair. Cebu Air, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Pasay City, the Philippines. Cebu Air, Inc. is a subsidiary of CPAir Holdings, Inc.

Star Flyer Inc. operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry. The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo. Star Flyer also offers shuttle services between key Japanese cities.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

In this insight we document China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic tourism demand by sharing with readers ten illustrative charts.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Air cargo rates at EVA remain high, and a strong recovery in Taiwanese tourism demand is lifting passenger yields, too. Investors are pricing in a...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

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