Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is huge size to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.</li>
<li>There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rb-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25475:1" rel="noopener">RB Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land</a> could see further positioning in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR &amp; Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.</li>
<li>The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels</li>
<li>TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million</li>
</ul>


TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.
The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels
TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million


<ul>
<li>TPL captured more water business in the second quarter than the Company had previously achieved leading to revenue and earnings exceeding our expectations</li>
<li>The water business has been a revenue source smoothing out the volatility associated with the movement in oil and gas prices and production levels</li>
<li>While TPL is not expecting to repeat second quarter levels in the third quarter, the water business should continue to perform better than previously expected</li>
</ul>


TPL captured more water business in the second quarter than the Company had previously achieved leading to revenue and earnings exceeding our expectations
The water business has been a revenue source smoothing out the volatility associated with the movement in oil and gas prices and production levels
While TPL is not expecting to repeat second quarter levels in the third quarter, the water business should continue to perform better than previously expected


<ul>
<li>TPL reported first quarter results that included a larger than normal legal expense crippling the Company’s net income in the period</li>
<li>TPL is disputing with its largest shareholder as to the voting agreement they have in place with them </li>
<li>Increase in non-oil and gas royalty revenue during a seasonally soft quarter leads us to expect outperformance over the next two quarters.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported first quarter results that included a larger than normal legal expense crippling the Company’s net income in the period
TPL is disputing with its largest shareholder as to the voting agreement they have in place with them 
Increase in non-oil and gas royalty revenue during a seasonally soft quarter leads us to expect outperformance over the next two quarters.


TPL: Free Cash Flow with Depressed Valuation

<ul>
<li>TPL reported fourth quarter revenue impacted by a trifecta of events. The decline in energy prices led to reduced production levels causing water sales to also decline in a period</li>
<li>TPL had been seeing production rebound in the summer of 2022. The volatility in energy prices in the Permian Basin pushed some producers to slow down their well development plans</li>
<li>The lower production was the biggest culprit to the decline in revenue as producers were not incentivized to produce oil and natural gas.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported fourth quarter revenue impacted by a trifecta of events. The decline in energy prices led to reduced production levels causing water sales to also decline in a period
TPL had been seeing production rebound in the summer of 2022. The volatility in energy prices in the Permian Basin pushed some producers to slow down their well development plans
The lower production was the biggest culprit to the decline in revenue as producers were not incentivized to produce oil and natural gas.


United States

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)

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