US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a> are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group (EME US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. </li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) and Apollo Global Management (APO US) are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  

Texas Pacific Land (TPL US) is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. 

Emcor Group (EME US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. 


S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL continues to use water as means to diversify from oil and gas. The low price of natural gas has put pressure on the BOE price TPL generates royalties from.   </li>
<li>TPL missed our total revenue estimate for the second quarter due to a decline in oil and gas royalties. However, TPL’s water business remains the bright spot of the business</li>
<li>We continue to believe TPL’s revenue sourced outside of oil and gas royalties could draw greater investor attention and result in a higher valuation for TPL’s stock. </li>
</ul>


TPL continues to use water as means to diversify from oil and gas. The low price of natural gas has put pressure on the BOE price TPL generates royalties from.   
TPL missed our total revenue estimate for the second quarter due to a decline in oil and gas royalties. However, TPL’s water business remains the bright spot of the business
We continue to believe TPL’s revenue sourced outside of oil and gas royalties could draw greater investor attention and result in a higher valuation for TPL’s stock. 


<ul>
<li>TPL reported first quarter results with a higher than expected revenue figure from water sales to go along with the Company’s disclosure of a new desalination technology</li>
<li>TPL’s quarterly results were better than we had projected due to the performance in water sales. Unlike second quarter 2023 results, TPL’s management referred to a pipeline of sales</li>
<li>TPL used the first quarter results to disclose a new method of desalination of produced water</li>
</ul>


TPL reported first quarter results with a higher than expected revenue figure from water sales to go along with the Company’s disclosure of a new desalination technology
TPL’s quarterly results were better than we had projected due to the performance in water sales. Unlike second quarter 2023 results, TPL’s management referred to a pipeline of sales
TPL used the first quarter results to disclose a new method of desalination of produced water


<ul>
<li>The return of higher crude oil prices could result in Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reporting higher than expected revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2023</li>
<li>TPL does not hedge its exposure to energy prices, which would have an outsize benefit when prices move higher like they have in the third quarter</li>
<li>Crude oil production has been rising even though total rig count has also declined from levels reached earlier in the year</li>
</ul>


The return of higher crude oil prices could result in Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reporting higher than expected revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2023
TPL does not hedge its exposure to energy prices, which would have an outsize benefit when prices move higher like they have in the third quarter
Crude oil production has been rising even though total rig count has also declined from levels reached earlier in the year


<ul>
<li>The best combination of events for TPL is energy prices and production going up. This year, production levels in the Permian Basin recovered quickly from the seasonal decline.</li>
<li>The hinderance to TPL’s quarter could come from the price of natural gas, which declined throughout much of the first quarter due to the warmer winter weather</li>
<li>A majority of TPL’s revenue is from crude oil and natural gas royalties with production becoming the biggest factor in each quarter</li>
</ul>


The best combination of events for TPL is energy prices and production going up. This year, production levels in the Permian Basin recovered quickly from the seasonal decline.
The hinderance to TPL’s quarter could come from the price of natural gas, which declined throughout much of the first quarter due to the warmer winter weather
A majority of TPL’s revenue is from crude oil and natural gas royalties with production becoming the biggest factor in each quarter


United States

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - the top migration candidate - has been announced as an addition to S&P500 prior to the quarterly review as it is...

Dimitris Ioannidis

TPL: Oily Water of Gold

Water sales grew more than expected as TPL expands its service region beyond the land acreage it owns. The growth possibility for the water...

BWS Financial Inc

TPL: Watering for the Next Phase

Q1 water sales was much stronger than expected and leads us to assume there could be momentum behind these numbers since first quarter is...

BWS Financial Inc

TPL: The Unhedged

The continued rally in the price of crude oil should result in higher oil and gas royalty revenue for TPL in the third quarter. We are raising our...

BWS Financial Inc

TPL: Price & Production

The mild winter weather in Texas in Q1 allowed production in the Permian Basin to quickly return to near December 2023 levels. Production should...

BWS Financial Inc

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