Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Silergy foresees the demand will be larger than capacity in 2022. Silergy expects Auto, Sever Mother-board, SSD and others should be showing a strong demand in 2022.</li>
<li>The shipment lead-time is controlled around 5~6 months, which indicated that the demand is strong for 2022~23.</li>
<li>The generation 3rd will be optimized until 2026. Silergy will need some new suppliers for generation 4th in 2023. In 2026, generation 3rd &amp; 4th will dominate Silergy’s revenue. </li>
</ul>


Silergy foresees the demand will be larger than capacity in 2022. Silergy expects Auto, Sever Mother-board, SSD and others should be showing a strong demand in 2022.
The shipment lead-time is controlled around 5~6 months, which indicated that the demand is strong for 2022~23.
The generation 3rd will be optimized until 2026. Silergy will need some new suppliers for generation 4th in 2023. In 2026, generation 3rd &amp; 4th will dominate Silergy’s revenue. 


Silergy (6415.TT): Earnings Conference for 4Q21- The Demand Is Strong for 2022~23.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Texas Instruments (TI) reported a first quarter of 2024 revenue that met expectations, despite witnessing a 10% sequential and 16% year-over-year decrease to $3.7bn.</li><li>Revenue declined across all of its end markets as customers continued to pare their inventory levels.</li><li>In terms of individual revenue components, Analog revenue declined 14% year-over-year, Embedded Processing declined 22%, and the Other segment declined 33% from the year-ago quarter.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments (TI) reported a first quarter of 2024 revenue that met expectations, despite witnessing a 10% sequential and 16% year-over-year decrease to $3.7bn.Revenue declined across all of its end markets as customers continued to pare their inventory levels.In terms of individual revenue components, Analog revenue declined 14% year-over-year, Embedded Processing declined 22%, and the Other segment declined 33% from the year-ago quarter.

Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

Silergy (6415.TT): Earnings Conference for 4Q21- The Demand Is Strong for 2022~23.

Silergy expects Auto, Sever Mother-board, SSD should be showing a strong demand in 2022. The shipment lead-time is controlled at around 5~6 months,...

Patrick Liao

Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers

Texas Instruments (TI) reported a first quarter of 2024 revenue that met expectations, despite witnessing a 10% sequential and 16% year-over-year...

Baptista Research

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