Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

In this insight, we provide our thoughts on the resignation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a> founder Trevor Milton, who will be replaced by Stephen Girsky, a former GM executive who already sits on Nikola Corp's board. On 10 September, a firm called  Hindenburg Research published a<a href="https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> report</a> that harshly criticized the company. We are interested in Nikola mainly because a Korean company called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)'s </a>stock price has been highly impacted by Nikola's share price recently.In our view, Hindenburg Research makes legitimate criticism of Nikola Corp and its founder Trevor Milton. Nikola Corp has come out with a rebuttal but we do not believe this is enough to calm investors and customers. Regarding Nikola Corp, it all comes down to whether or not the company has its own unique hydrogen-based technology which it claims it does. Nikola Corp needs to hire a well-respected third party agent and give sufficient proof that its technology really works. Investors are waiting for the confirmation of an independent third party test of its technology. If the company is unwilling to provide such tests and continues to delay such tests, we believe this could have a further negative impact on Nikola Corp and its major investors including Hanwha Solutions.

In this insight, we provide our thoughts on the resignation of Nikola Corp (NKLA US) founder Trevor Milton, who will be replaced by Stephen Girsky, a former GM executive who already sits on Nikola Corp's board. On 10 September, a firm called  Hindenburg Research published a report that harshly criticized the company. We are interested in Nikola mainly because a Korean company called Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)'s stock price has been highly impacted by Nikola's share price recently.In our view, Hindenburg Research makes legitimate criticism of Nikola Corp and its founder Trevor Milton. Nikola Corp has come out with a rebuttal but we do not believe this is enough to calm investors and customers. Regarding Nikola Corp, it all comes down to whether or not the company has its own unique hydrogen-based technology which it claims it does. Nikola Corp needs to hire a well-respected third party agent and give sufficient proof that its technology really works. Investors are waiting for the confirmation of an independent third party test of its technology. If the company is unwilling to provide such tests and continues to delay such tests, we believe this could have a further negative impact on Nikola Corp and its major investors including Hanwha Solutions. 

Nikola's Founder Resigns - The Next Enron?

Event-Driven

In this insight, we compare <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>'s carve-out and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>'s spin-off of their rechargeable battery businesses. Interestingly, the formal announcements of the IPOs of these two businesses resulted in different price reactions of their parent companies. Why Are the Share Price Reactions of LG Chem &amp; SK Innovation So Different? <ul>
<li>Tesla Effect</li>
<li>
Uncertainty in the post carve-out dilution
</li>
<li>Valuations of high vs low multiples business units </li>
</ul>

In this insight, we compare LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)'s carve-out and SK Innovation (096770 KS)'s spin-off of their rechargeable battery businesses. Interestingly, the formal announcements of the IPOs of these two businesses resulted in different price reactions of their parent companies. Why Are the Share Price Reactions of LG Chem &amp; SK Innovation So Different? 
Tesla Effect

Uncertainty in the post carve-out dilution

Valuations of high vs low multiples business units 


Comparison of LG Chem's Carve-Out & SK Innovation's Spin-Off of Rechargeable Battery Businesses

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$191m to fund its capacity expansion plans. We have covered the H-shares listing in 2018, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ganfeng-lithium-ipo-falling-lithium-prices-weigh-on-the-leading-producer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24529" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium IPO (赣锋锂业): Falling Lithium Prices Weigh on the Leading Producer.</a>The shares have more than doubled on YTD basis, even though earnings have far from kept pace. However, analyst continue to be positive on the stock and are building in much faster growth ahead.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) aims to raise around US$191m to fund its capacity expansion plans. We have covered the H-shares listing in 2018, Ganfeng Lithium IPO (赣锋锂业): Falling Lithium Prices Weigh on the Leading Producer.The shares have more than doubled on YTD basis, even though earnings have far from kept pace. However, analyst continue to be positive on the stock and are building in much faster growth ahead.

Ganfeng Lithium Placement - Momentum Play

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> was revealed on Friday as the massive NASDAQ whale helping to drive unprecedented option volume in recent weeks with its multi-billion dollar call-buying spree in the biggest tech names, as reported by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbanks-bet-on-tech-giants-fueled-powerful-market-rally-11599232205" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Wall Street Journal</a> which confirmed speculation Thursday by <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculation-emerges-over-identity-mystery-marketwide-call-buyer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zero Hedge</a>.Softbank's option trades added to $40 billion in call-buying over the past month traced to retail investors. The resulting frenzy netted Softbank <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/53aa19bb-fc9a-46fd-aafd-4bc3669ab161" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$4 billion in option trading gains—on paper—</a>on its own <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbanks-bet-on-tech-giants-fueled-powerful-market-rally-11599232205" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$50 billion notional exposure</a>. By comparison, Softbank's newly acquired long positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> are worth just <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3eec59a3-cb51-487c-aacd-68a0c7e46f2f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$2 billion</a>, almost all that's left of the $10 billion Softbank spent late in the June quarter buying and selling mostly tech stocks at heady prices. Those holdings now are also subject to sharp declines triggered when Softbank's option scheme was revealed. Sure enough, Softbank <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9e5827e9-893a-453e-b28d-88c1c0adc9d5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lost $9 billion in market value</a> on Monday.There's plenty of intense scrutiny underway to understand these trades and what their impact ultimately proves to be. I'm more interested in Softbank's drastic change in strategy and its alternative deployment of cash from $40 billion raised in stock fire sales forced by its wary banks and legacy mega-investors who cut him and Softbank off after decades of seemingly endless billions in available funding when his recklessness netted Softbank and Vision Fund tens of billions of dollars in record losses. This certainly is not what Softbank told investors to expect mere weeks ago.Instead, Softbank's actions signal arrogance, or desperation, or worse—that CEO Masayoshi Son feels unrestrained and back in his Star Wars Zone with $40 billion in fresh cash.<div class="content-highlight">Read on for a Bond Angle deep dive into the belly of Softbank, The Whale, and what Son feels free to do with its $40 billion in cash that was pledged to bolster Softbank's bloodied balance sheet.</div>

Softbank Group (9984 JP) was revealed on Friday as the massive NASDAQ whale helping to drive unprecedented option volume in recent weeks with its multi-billion dollar call-buying spree in the biggest tech names, as reported by Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal which confirmed speculation Thursday by Zero Hedge.Softbank's option trades added to $40 billion in call-buying over the past month traced to retail investors. The resulting frenzy netted Softbank $4 billion in option trading gains—on paper—on its own $50 billion notional exposure. By comparison, Softbank's newly acquired long positions in Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US), Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US), Microsoft Corp (MSFT US),  and Tesla Motors (TSLA US) are worth just $2 billion, almost all that's left of the $10 billion Softbank spent late in the June quarter buying and selling mostly tech stocks at heady prices. Those holdings now are also subject to sharp declines triggered when Softbank's option scheme was revealed. Sure enough, Softbank lost $9 billion in market value on Monday.There's plenty of intense scrutiny underway to understand these trades and what their impact ultimately proves to be. I'm more interested in Softbank's drastic change in strategy and its alternative deployment of cash from $40 billion raised in stock fire sales forced by its wary banks and legacy mega-investors who cut him and Softbank off after decades of seemingly endless billions in available funding when his recklessness netted Softbank and Vision Fund tens of billions of dollars in record losses. This certainly is not what Softbank told investors to expect mere weeks ago.Instead, Softbank's actions signal arrogance, or desperation, or worse—that CEO Masayoshi Son feels unrestrained and back in his Star Wars Zone with $40 billion in fresh cash.Read on for a Bond Angle deep dive into the belly of Softbank, The Whale, and what Son feels free to do with its $40 billion in cash that was pledged to bolster Softbank's bloodied balance sheet.

Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Tesla was not included in the S&amp;P 500 in its latest revision with the S&amp;P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent. In addition, the company was the subject of a less than flattering review of its Full Self-Driving functionality by Consumer Reports. A review whose implications were underlined by an accident in China on Saturday where two people were killed and six injured with a Tesla driven by a 51-year-old woman involved. Downside risks are starting to accumulate here.

Tesla was not included in the S&amp;P 500 in its latest revision with the S&amp;P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent. In addition, the company was the subject of a less than flattering review of its Full Self-Driving functionality by Consumer Reports. A review whose implications were underlined by an accident in China on Saturday where two people were killed and six injured with a Tesla driven by a 51-year-old woman involved. Downside risks are starting to accumulate here.

Tesla – Fully Self-Driven, but Badly And Not Into the S&P

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Nikola's Founder Resigns - The Next Enron?

In our view, Hindenburg Research makes legitimate criticism of Nikola Corp and its founder Trevor Milton. Nikola Corp has come out with a rebuttal...

Douglas Kim

Comparison of LG Chem's Carve-Out & SK Innovation's Spin-Off of Rechargeable Battery Businesses

In this insight, we compare the spin-offs and IPOs of LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and SK Innovation (096770 KS)'s rechargeable battery business units....

Douglas Kim

Ganfeng Lithium Placement - Momentum Play

Ganfeng Lithium IPO (赣锋锂业): Falling Lithium Prices Weigh on the Leading Producer

Sumeet Singh

Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect

The market is eager to know what Softbank plans to do with a burgeoning war chest from bigger and bigger stock sales. The better question is why...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla – Fully Self-Driven, but Badly And Not Into the S&P

Tesla was not included in the S&P 500 in its latest revision with the S&P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy,...

Mio Kato

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