Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

The Chinese internet search giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has passed its listing hearing for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Baidu’s secondary listing document didn’t provide the terms of the IPO, however, according to news media outlets, Baidu could raise as much as US$4-5bn through its HKEX offering.Though Baidu has been known as a search engine for the past two decades, the company has finally been able to monetise its efforts in AI and related technologies. Baidu’s core online advertising business growth has slowed down (negative over the last two years), and at the same time, we remain concerned about the prospects of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> as well as recently acquired YY Live business from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> . However, we believe Baidu’s next phase of growth will be driven by its AI Cloud business that includes self-driving and intelligent EVs. The top line from AI Cloud business has more than tripled over the past three years.We believe the motive behind Baidu’s secondary listing close to its home is far from raising funds to fuel its business growth as the company is rich in cash. Baidu reported cash and cash equivalents of US$5.5bn and short-term investments of US$19.3bn as at the end of December 2020. Cash and short-term investments together accounted for nearly 50% of the company’s total assets as of that date. On the other hand, Baidu’s total debt of around US$11.6bn accounted for about 60% of the cash and short-term investment balance.

The Chinese internet search giant Baidu (BIDU US)  has passed its listing hearing for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Baidu’s secondary listing document didn’t provide the terms of the IPO, however, according to news media outlets, Baidu could raise as much as US$4-5bn through its HKEX offering.Though Baidu has been known as a search engine for the past two decades, the company has finally been able to monetise its efforts in AI and related technologies. Baidu’s core online advertising business growth has slowed down (negative over the last two years), and at the same time, we remain concerned about the prospects of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) as well as recently acquired YY Live business from JOYY (YY US) . However, we believe Baidu’s next phase of growth will be driven by its AI Cloud business that includes self-driving and intelligent EVs. The top line from AI Cloud business has more than tripled over the past three years.We believe the motive behind Baidu’s secondary listing close to its home is far from raising funds to fuel its business growth as the company is rich in cash. Baidu reported cash and cash equivalents of US$5.5bn and short-term investments of US$19.3bn as at the end of December 2020. Cash and short-term investments together accounted for nearly 50% of the company’s total assets as of that date. On the other hand, Baidu’s total debt of around US$11.6bn accounted for about 60% of the cash and short-term investment balance.

Baidu Secondary Listing: At the Crossroads

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div>Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors include Tencent, GIC and Standard Chartered Bank.</div><div>Linklogis’ cloud-native solutions optimize the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. As per CIC, Linklogis was the leader among technology solution providers in China in terms of supply chain finance transactions processed over 9M20, accounting for 20.5% market share.</div><div>
Linklogis overall revenue grew by 83% YoY in FY19 and was up another 52% over 9M20. While its core function of Supply Chain finance has been registering strong growth of 64.4% YoY in FY19 and 53.8% in 9M20, revenue from its Emerging solutions was up nearly 6x in FY19 and grew by another 38% over 9M20.
We have covered the positive aspects of the deal in our earlier insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growing-blockchain-driven-supply-chain-financier" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growing Blockchain Driven Supply Chain Financier</a>. In this insight, I'll cover the not so pleasant aspects of the deal.
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Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors include Tencent, GIC and Standard Chartered Bank.Linklogis’ cloud-native solutions optimize the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. As per CIC, Linklogis was the leader among technology solution providers in China in terms of supply chain finance transactions processed over 9M20, accounting for 20.5% market share.
Linklogis overall revenue grew by 83% YoY in FY19 and was up another 52% over 9M20. While its core function of Supply Chain finance has been registering strong growth of 64.4% YoY in FY19 and 53.8% in 9M20, revenue from its Emerging solutions was up nearly 6x in FY19 and grew by another 38% over 9M20.
We have covered the positive aspects of the deal in our earlier insight, Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growing Blockchain Driven Supply Chain Financier. In this insight, I'll cover the not so pleasant aspects of the deal.


Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Inconsistent Growth and Margins, Well Funded Competitors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Smoore International Holdings / Event-Driven

On 1 March, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) announced the conclusions of the market consultation on the "Proposal to enhance the Hang Seng Index as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market".The main takeaways are an increase in the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents to 80 by mid-2022 and ultimately to 100, balanced representation across 7 Industry group with a market coverage of not less than 50%, a 3 month minimum listing history requirement, a representation of 20-25 Hong Kong companies in the index, and a rationalisation in the weighting cap to 8% for all stocks (including Secondary Listings and WVR Securities).There is no timeline of how HSIL intends to reach the 80 constituent target count by mid-2022 or to the 100 constituents beyond that. HSIL has not updated the index methodology file either which adds another layer of uncertainty.In this Insight we look at stocks that could be higher probability inclusions in the index at the June review based on the current index methodology and the proposed changes to the methodology and come up with 9 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions.

On 1 March, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) announced the conclusions of the market consultation on the "Proposal to enhance the Hang Seng Index as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market".The main takeaways are an increase in the number of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents to 80 by mid-2022 and ultimately to 100, balanced representation across 7 Industry group with a market coverage of not less than 50%, a 3 month minimum listing history requirement, a representation of 20-25 Hong Kong companies in the index, and a rationalisation in the weighting cap to 8% for all stocks (including Secondary Listings and WVR Securities).There is no timeline of how HSIL intends to reach the 80 constituent target count by mid-2022 or to the 100 constituents beyond that. HSIL has not updated the index methodology file either which adds another layer of uncertainty.In this Insight we look at stocks that could be higher probability inclusions in the index at the June review based on the current index methodology and the proposed changes to the methodology and come up with 9 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B
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Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  
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Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  


Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Indonesia e-commerce player Bukalapak, which counts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> as its largest local backer but also has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>, GIC, and Naver Corp is investors in reportedly in talks to list through a SPAC with a valuation of US$4bn-US$5bn, with a local listing of part of the business in Jakarta first. The timing suggests a target transaction date in 3Q2021.
Bukalapak is the No.4 e-commerce player in Indonesia with 13.5m online sellers and 100m monthly active users, competing with players such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a>, Shopee (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US))</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group (LAZADA SP)</a> but with an edge providing fulfillment and logistics for around 5.4m warungs (mom&amp;pop stores) in Indonesia.
The company recently saw <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> come in as part of a US$200m funding round, with a view of helping to build financial services through the platform and offer to its sellers and customers financial services.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> is the most direct beneficiary of a listing for Bukalapak, even through a SPAC, given that it will crystallize a market value for the company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>approved a stock split in December and the company has become more liquid and it may look at a further restructuring at a later stage to bring all its digital and media assets under one roof.
The IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) is already talking about both allowing SPACs to list in Indonesia but also more importantly to allow main-board listings for high-growth companies that may not be profitable, as well as allowing dual-class shares.

Indonesia e-commerce player Bukalapak, which counts Emtek (EMTK IJ) as its largest local backer but also has Microsoft Corp (MSFT US), Standard Chartered (STAN LN), GIC, and Naver Corp is investors in reportedly in talks to list through a SPAC with a valuation of US$4bn-US$5bn, with a local listing of part of the business in Jakarta first. The timing suggests a target transaction date in 3Q2021.
Bukalapak is the No.4 e-commerce player in Indonesia with 13.5m online sellers and 100m monthly active users, competing with players such as Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ), Shopee (Sea Ltd (SE US)), and Lazada Group (LAZADA SP) but with an edge providing fulfillment and logistics for around 5.4m warungs (mom&amp;pop stores) in Indonesia.
The company recently saw Standard Chartered (STAN LN) come in as part of a US$200m funding round, with a view of helping to build financial services through the platform and offer to its sellers and customers financial services.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) is the most direct beneficiary of a listing for Bukalapak, even through a SPAC, given that it will crystallize a market value for the company. Emtek (EMTK IJ)approved a stock split in December and the company has become more liquid and it may look at a further restructuring at a later stage to bring all its digital and media assets under one roof.
The IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) is already talking about both allowing SPACs to list in Indonesia but also more importantly to allow main-board listings for high-growth companies that may not be profitable, as well as allowing dual-class shares. 

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Bukalapak Eyeing a SPAC Listing But Jakarta May Be First?

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Baidu Secondary Listing: At the Crossroads

Baidu’s core online advertising business growth has been slowing down, however, Baidu's efforts in AI and advanced technologies have begun to bear...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Inconsistent Growth and Margins, Well Funded Competitors

Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors...

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June

Following the proposed changes to the HSI, we identify potential inclusions and exclusions at the June review. Turnover will be high due to changes...

Brian Freitas

Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

Roblox is set to IPO tomorrow. We think its a unique asset and are inclined to own this depending on how outlandish valuation turns out to be as...

Aaron Gabin

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Bukalapak Eyeing a SPAC Listing But Jakarta May Be First?

Emtek is an interesting way to play the burgeoning digital economy in Indonesia and would be a key beneficiary should subsidiary Bukalapak choose...

Angus Mackintosh

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