Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The government of China announced last week a set of rules aimed at the country’s gaming sector in order to reduce the long-term impact of gaming on the country’s younger population (those under 18 years of age). Those new rules on limiting the mobile gaming time, we think was taken lightly by the market, however, regulators continue to ramp up regulation and tighten their grip on the mobile gaming sector. Executives from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>  and other mobile gaming companies were called in for a meeting on Wednesday and were instructed to end their “Solitary focus of pursuing profit” in order to prevent minors from getting addicted to games. This no doubt will require gaming companies to change their game rules and designs that induce addiction and at the same time, changes to operating models that will severely impact revenue and margins of games.</p><p>As China tackles to bring down gaming addiction among minor users, SCMP reports that the Chinese regulators will temporarily freeze approvals for new online games.</p>

The government of China announced last week a set of rules aimed at the country’s gaming sector in order to reduce the long-term impact of gaming on the country’s younger population (those under 18 years of age). Those new rules on limiting the mobile gaming time, we think was taken lightly by the market, however, regulators continue to ramp up regulation and tighten their grip on the mobile gaming sector. Executives from Tencent (700 HK) , NetEase (9999 HK)  and other mobile gaming companies were called in for a meeting on Wednesday and were instructed to end their “Solitary focus of pursuing profit” in order to prevent minors from getting addicted to games. This no doubt will require gaming companies to change their game rules and designs that induce addiction and at the same time, changes to operating models that will severely impact revenue and margins of games.As China tackles to bring down gaming addiction among minor users, SCMP reports that the Chinese regulators will temporarily freeze approvals for new online games.

Tencent: Temporary Freeze of New Game Approvals to Further Impact Slowing Games Business

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Being “Seriously Dealt” With:</em></strong> No sooner than Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] virtual call ended with a competitor dismissing new gaming restrictions did the mainland Chinese regulator haul in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down. It’s probably fair to say, Tencent’s recent hubris was their Jack Ma moment. It kind of makes one wonder what the authorities have planned next for Tencent. As the screws continue to tighten, the question becomes whether or not Tencent can narrow the regulatory discount, or whether these issues will remain a persistent overhang?; </p><p><em><strong>*As We’ve Just Learned - Ignoring It, Doesn’t Make It Go Away: </strong></em>Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and </p><p><em><strong>*Prior To The War On Gaming, </strong><strong><em>Resu</em>lts Have Already Deteriorated: </strong></em>Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.    </p>

*Being “Seriously Dealt” With: No sooner than Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] virtual call ended with a competitor dismissing new gaming restrictions did the mainland Chinese regulator haul in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down. It’s probably fair to say, Tencent’s recent hubris was their Jack Ma moment. It kind of makes one wonder what the authorities have planned next for Tencent. As the screws continue to tighten, the question becomes whether or not Tencent can narrow the regulatory discount, or whether these issues will remain a persistent overhang?; *As We’ve Just Learned - Ignoring It, Doesn’t Make It Go Away: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and *Prior To The War On Gaming, Results Have Already Deteriorated: Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.    

Tencent Holdings – Modern Day Opium War

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, South-East Asia's largest market cap company, has announced that it aims to raise US$6.3bn in the largest equity offering of 2021. The deal will allow the company to accelerate its global expansion and give the company the financial firepower for potential acquisitions.</p>
<p>The company will offer 11m shares or a stake worth about US$3.8bn at the close on 8th September plus it intends to issue US$2.5bn in equity-linked debt to bring the total funds raised to circa US$6.8bn. </p>
<p>Apart from continuing to grow its business in South-East Asia, the company is now expanding its e-commerce presence in South America, with a focus on Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia. </p>
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<div>According to local press reports, Shopee may also look to enter Eastern Europe, with Poland as its first target market.  Shopee has also launched a recruitment campaign for vendors to sell on what it called "Shopee India" and is ramping up hiring in the country. It has also been looking for office space in the country.</div>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> continues to grow its ShopeeFood business both in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets. There has also been some talk of the company expanding food delivery into Malaysia, as it has already been advertising for drivers.</p>
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<p>Assuming the completion of this fundraising goes smoothly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> will have a war chest of around US$13bn at its disposal to finance its ongoing expansion, though it is not yet clear what it needs this money for.</p>
<p>This may be seen as opportunistic fundraising in some camps but given its aspiration to expand globally into other emerging markets plus growing its digital finance and food delivery arms quite aggressively, this will certainly give the company the financial firepower to do so. </p>
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<p>We continue to take a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> which currently trades on 16x FY21E EV/Sales, 10.4x FY22E EV/Sales, and 7.8x FY23E EV/Sales, justified by sales growth of +105% YoY in FY2021, +47% YoY in FY22E, and +32.8% YoY growth in FY2023. </p>
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Sea Ltd (SE US), South-East Asia's largest market cap company, has announced that it aims to raise US$6.3bn in the largest equity offering of 2021. The deal will allow the company to accelerate its global expansion and give the company the financial firepower for potential acquisitions.
The company will offer 11m shares or a stake worth about US$3.8bn at the close on 8th September plus it intends to issue US$2.5bn in equity-linked debt to bring the total funds raised to circa US$6.8bn. 
Apart from continuing to grow its business in South-East Asia, the company is now expanding its e-commerce presence in South America, with a focus on Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia. 


According to local press reports, Shopee may also look to enter Eastern Europe, with Poland as its first target market.  Shopee has also launched a recruitment campaign for vendors to sell on what it called "Shopee India" and is ramping up hiring in the country. It has also been looking for office space in the country.



Sea Ltd (SE US) continues to grow its ShopeeFood business both in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets. There has also been some talk of the company expanding food delivery into Malaysia, as it has already been advertising for drivers.


Assuming the completion of this fundraising goes smoothly Sea Ltd (SE US) will have a war chest of around US$13bn at its disposal to finance its ongoing expansion, though it is not yet clear what it needs this money for.
This may be seen as opportunistic fundraising in some camps but given its aspiration to expand globally into other emerging markets plus growing its digital finance and food delivery arms quite aggressively, this will certainly give the company the financial firepower to do so. 


We continue to take a positive view on Sea Ltd (SE US) which currently trades on 16x FY21E EV/Sales, 10.4x FY22E EV/Sales, and 7.8x FY23E EV/Sales, justified by sales growth of +105% YoY in FY2021, +47% YoY in FY22E, and +32.8% YoY growth in FY2023. 



Sea Ltd (SE US) - The Runway Just Got Longer

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<p>We said a couple of weeks ago that the restrictions on the gaming sector imposed by China were far more severe than the market reaction indicated. However, our view was mostly a call on the long-term impact of the gaming time restrictions on minors. The latest updates suggest that even the short-term outlook could get dire fast.</p>

We said a couple of weeks ago that the restrictions on the gaming sector imposed by China were far more severe than the market reaction indicated. However, our view was mostly a call on the long-term impact of the gaming time restrictions on minors. The latest updates suggest that even the short-term outlook could get dire fast.

China Gaming Restrictions Redux – Market Seems to Be in Denial

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US) plans </a>to raise around US$3.5bn via an equity offering, along with another US$2.5bn via a convertible offering. The company last raised US$2.5bn in Dec 2020, which we covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-placement-new-business-needs-new-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEA Ltd Placement - New Business Needs New Money</a>.</p>
<p>While the stock’s momentum and earnings growth is very strong, the last deal didn’t do particularly well in the near term.</p>
<p>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p>
</div><div><p>Links to our prior SEA coverage:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-trade-idea-time-to-shine-market-discounting-e-commerce-to-almost-zero" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd Trade Idea - Time to Shine - Market Discounting E-Commerce to Almost Zero</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-placement-capitalizing-on-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28366" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd Placement - Capitalizing on Momentum</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-ipo-review-e-commerce-constitutes-64-of-sotp-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14375" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd IPO Review - E-Commerce Constitutes 64% of SOTP Valuation</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-ipo-review-a-pure-exposure-to-se-asia-s-e-commerce-gaming-despite-stiff-competition" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13958" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd IPO Review - A Pure Exposure to SE Asia's E-Commerce &amp; Gaming Despite Stiff Competition</a></li>
</ul></div>


Sea Ltd (SE US) plans to raise around US$3.5bn via an equity offering, along with another US$2.5bn via a convertible offering. The company last raised US$2.5bn in Dec 2020, which we covered in SEA Ltd Placement - New Business Needs New Money.
While the stock’s momentum and earnings growth is very strong, the last deal didn’t do particularly well in the near term.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Links to our prior SEA coverage:
Sea Ltd Trade Idea - Time to Shine - Market Discounting E-Commerce to Almost Zero

Sea Ltd Placement - Capitalizing on Momentum 

Sea Ltd IPO Review - E-Commerce Constitutes 64% of SOTP Valuation 
Sea Ltd IPO Review - A Pure Exposure to SE Asia's E-Commerce &amp; Gaming Despite Stiff Competition


SEA Ltd Placement -Momentum Is Very Strong but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well and It Doesn’t Need the Cash

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent: Temporary Freeze of New Game Approvals to Further Impact Slowing Games Business

The new video game approval freeze in China in 2018 severely impacted Tencent’s online games revenues where it declined YoY for three consecutive...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Holdings – Modern Day Opium War

TENCENT HOLDINGS: The mainland Chinese regulator hauled in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down over the recent August gaming...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sea Ltd (SE US) - The Runway Just Got Longer

Sea Ltd just announced a US$6.8bn fundraise which gives the company a war chest of US$13bn to expand both geographically and into new areas such as...

Angus Mackintosh

China Gaming Restrictions Redux – Market Seems to Be in Denial

While we felt the market overlooked the long-term implications of previous gaming restrictions the latest updates on China's crackdown suggest that...

Mio Kato

SEA Ltd Placement -Momentum Is Very Strong but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well and It Doesn’t Need the Cash

Sea Ltd (SE US) plans to raise around US$3.5bn via an equity offering, along with another US$2.5bn via a convertible offering. The company last...

Sumeet Singh

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