Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TME reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income inline, 12.9%, 2.3% vs. consensus. The bottom-line beat mainly due to the cost-effective operation and music subscription services.</li>
<li>We notice TME has become less reliable on live streaming and more on monetizing its user base through ARPU enhancement</li>
<li>We upgraded TME to BUY and raised the target price to US$ 9.7, implying a 21.1x PE ratio compared to its current trading at 17.8x in 2024.</li>
</ul>


TME reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income inline, 12.9%, 2.3% vs. consensus. The bottom-line beat mainly due to the cost-effective operation and music subscription services.
We notice TME has become less reliable on live streaming and more on monetizing its user base through ARPU enhancement
We upgraded TME to BUY and raised the target price to US$ 9.7, implying a 21.1x PE ratio compared to its current trading at 17.8x in 2024.


[Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  </li>
<li>We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.</li>
<li>Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. </li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  
We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.
Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. 


[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 17th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy (467 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy (467 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 17th): AIA, United Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)</li>
<li>BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)</li>
<li>On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.</li>
</ul>


BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.


[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.</li>
<li>Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.</li>
<li>Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.
Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.
Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.


Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

[Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

TME's Q3 results beat expectations, driven by cost-effective operations and music subscriptions. The company is shifting focus to monetizing its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 17th): AIA, United Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight top 3 companies repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

​TME's Q3 results beat expectations, driven by cost-effective operations and music subscriptions. The company is shifting focus to monetizing its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

​Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 17th): AIA, United Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight top 3 companies repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

​Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

​Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

TME's Q3 results beat expectations, driven by cost-effective operations and music subscriptions. The company is shifting focus to monetizing its...

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...