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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments As has been widely expected, China has moved to greatly reduce the time under-18s spend playing computer games.  Under the new rule, younger gamers will be restricted to one hour (8 pm - 9 pm) of online games on Fridays, weekends and holidays, with online gaming companies barred from providing gaming services to minors in any form outside of those hours.</p>

Headline Developments As has been widely expected, China has moved to greatly reduce the time under-18s spend playing computer games.  Under the new rule, younger gamers will be restricted to one hour (8 pm - 9 pm) of online games on Fridays, weekends and holidays, with online gaming companies barred from providing gaming services to minors in any form outside of those hours.

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s share price retreated 3.2% overnight on news that China would restrict playing time for minors to 3 hours a week - that is, 8pm to 9pm time slots on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with an extra hour on public holidays.  The share price erased these losses and recorded an intra-day gain of 3.3% by Tuesday's market close, suggesting that regulatory concerns were assuaged by Tencent's affirmation of low single-digit revenue contribution of minors. </p>
<p>Insight Provider Mio Kato wrote a unique but sensible piece about how the market may have misunderstood the significance of the restrictions, with the implications for the long-term growth of the industry more severe and an appreciation of the relevant issues would come sooner.  A key thrust of the argument is that habit-formation of gaming at an early age would be disrupted to an extent that gaming habits and user time spent do not carry over into adulthood. </p>
<p>Tencent's gaming revenue is derived primarily from the sales of in-game virtual items and the provision of adjacent services.  In this article, we expand on the above argument by highlighting how the habit-formation disruption not only affects user time spent but also have a knock-on impact with respect to in-game virtual item spending, subscription, and IP consumption. </p>
<p>Further, Tencent's revenue recognition on the provision of online games heavily depends on management's assumptions of the gamer's usage profile, which was in turn determined based on past gaming habits. This was historically raised as a Key Audit Matter in Tencent's Audit Opinions. Accordingly, we also discuss in this article how the underlying management assumptions might change as a result of the regulations and consequent impact on Tencent's gaming revenues. </p>

Tencent (700 HK)'s share price retreated 3.2% overnight on news that China would restrict playing time for minors to 3 hours a week - that is, 8pm to 9pm time slots on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with an extra hour on public holidays.  The share price erased these losses and recorded an intra-day gain of 3.3% by Tuesday's market close, suggesting that regulatory concerns were assuaged by Tencent's affirmation of low single-digit revenue contribution of minors. 
Insight Provider Mio Kato wrote a unique but sensible piece about how the market may have misunderstood the significance of the restrictions, with the implications for the long-term growth of the industry more severe and an appreciation of the relevant issues would come sooner.  A key thrust of the argument is that habit-formation of gaming at an early age would be disrupted to an extent that gaming habits and user time spent do not carry over into adulthood. 
Tencent's gaming revenue is derived primarily from the sales of in-game virtual items and the provision of adjacent services.  In this article, we expand on the above argument by highlighting how the habit-formation disruption not only affects user time spent but also have a knock-on impact with respect to in-game virtual item spending, subscription, and IP consumption. 
Further, Tencent's revenue recognition on the provision of online games heavily depends on management's assumptions of the gamer's usage profile, which was in turn determined based on past gaming habits. This was historically raised as a Key Audit Matter in Tencent's Audit Opinions. Accordingly, we also discuss in this article how the underlying management assumptions might change as a result of the regulations and consequent impact on Tencent's gaming revenues. 

Tencent - An Analytical Framework For "Tomorrow's" Gaming Minors

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

<p>This Original aims to showcase the leading Insurtech companies in the three insurance markets with the highest growth potential in Asia - China, India, and Southeast Asia.</p><p>Insurtech companies can be broadly divided into three categories - full-stack Inustech, Insurtech marketplace, and Insurtech enablers. As such, the Original also presents the Insurtech companies based on these categories by showing their company overview, how they leverage tech to do things differently, their product offerings, and financial information (capital raise and valuation in case of no financial information).</p><p>The Insurtech companies presented are:</p><ul><li><strong>Full-stack Insurtech</strong>: ZhongAn Online (China), Acko (India), SingLife (Singapore)</li><li><strong>Insurtech marketplace</strong>: Waterdrop (China), Huize (China), Policybazaar (India), Coverfox (India), Turtlemint (India), PasarPolis (Indonesia), PolicyStreet (Malaysia)</li><li><strong>Insurtech enablers</strong>: eBaoTech (China), Turtlemint (India), CXA Group (Singapore)  </li></ul><p>By analyzing the key Insurtech companies and their development in these countries/regions, we have further identified the following key trends/themes in the sector:</p><ul><li>In the near future, Insurtech is unlikely a threat to traditional (re)insurers who have also been actively investing in Insurtech themselves.</li><li>Insurtech marketplace is expanding offline and will likely embrace a hybrid model, especially in less developed insurance markets.</li><li>L&amp;H full-stack Insurtech companies are yet to be common in less developed insurance markets.</li><li>Insurtech is going to promote differentiated growth in insurance markets of different maturity.</li><li>“ReInsurtech” is currently still a blind spot.</li></ul><h2>What is Original?</h2><p>A deep dive into 12 (mostly private) leading Insurtech companies, under each Insurtech category from China, India, and Southeast Asia, is presented in this Original. Key investment thesis and risks are also developed for each company.  </p><p>Based on the company analysis and the broader insurance and Insurtech development in these countries/regions, five key Insurtech trends and themes are further identified. </p>

This Original aims to showcase the leading Insurtech companies in the three insurance markets with the highest growth potential in Asia - China, India, and Southeast Asia.Insurtech companies can be broadly divided into three categories - full-stack Inustech, Insurtech marketplace, and Insurtech enablers. As such, the Original also presents the Insurtech companies based on these categories by showing their company overview, how they leverage tech to do things differently, their product offerings, and financial information (capital raise and valuation in case of no financial information).The Insurtech companies presented are:Full-stack Insurtech: ZhongAn Online (China), Acko (India), SingLife (Singapore)Insurtech marketplace: Waterdrop (China), Huize (China), Policybazaar (India), Coverfox (India), Turtlemint (India), PasarPolis (Indonesia), PolicyStreet (Malaysia)Insurtech enablers: eBaoTech (China), Turtlemint (India), CXA Group (Singapore)  By analyzing the key Insurtech companies and their development in these countries/regions, we have further identified the following key trends/themes in the sector:In the near future, Insurtech is unlikely a threat to traditional (re)insurers who have also been actively investing in Insurtech themselves.Insurtech marketplace is expanding offline and will likely embrace a hybrid model, especially in less developed insurance markets.L&amp;H full-stack Insurtech companies are yet to be common in less developed insurance markets.Insurtech is going to promote differentiated growth in insurance markets of different maturity.“ReInsurtech” is currently still a blind spot.What is Original?A deep dive into 12 (mostly private) leading Insurtech companies, under each Insurtech category from China, India, and Southeast Asia, is presented in this Original. Key investment thesis and risks are also developed for each company.  Based on the company analysis and the broader insurance and Insurtech development in these countries/regions, five key Insurtech trends and themes are further identified. 

Asian Insurtech: The New Golden Child in Town?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> released a strong set of 2Q2021 results with +55.7% growth in TPV bringing 1H2021 TPV (Total Processing Value) growth to +54%. It reported a +37% YoY growth in revenue for 2Q2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"> The company's Mitra business continued to be the key driver, accounting for 48% of TPV in 2Q2021 versus 22% a year ago, with a growth rate of +292% YoY in 2Q2021.</section>
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<section class="figure">There was some reduction in the take-rate in 2Q2021, which some analysts may focus on but this was explained as due to a change in product mix and temporary. We address concerns regarding the take rate later but they seem overdone.</section>
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<section class="figure">Mitra Bukalapak continues to be the main growth engine for the company, with 2Q2021 Mitra TPV increasing by +237% YoY, to IDR14.2tn.</section>
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<p>Mitra Bukalapak’s contribution margin after S&amp;M cost improved from -1.0% of TPV in FY2020 to -0.5% of TPV in Mitra’s operating loss as a ratio to TPV improved from 1.2% in FY20 to 0.6% in 1H2021.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> management re-iterated its strategy to continue to help enhance the performance of its Mitra's and sellers on the platform following a more of a Shopify model than one like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> maintains that around 90% of its Mitra customers use only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> given that it addresses many uses and allows them to make more money. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> and Shopee are much more reliant on aggressive capital to expand, which is not an effective long-term strategy for Mitra customers. It is also difficult to discount FMCG products for any length of time given that principles keep a handle on price levels.</p>
<p>Management also revealed that its first collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> will focus on GrabMart, providing fresh food products for GrabMart's restaurant customers but more collaboration is expected on an incremental basis going forward. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> management is expecting annual growth in TPV of +50%-75% per annum, with 2022 seen as a potentially even stronger year, with better purchasing power coming through post-pandemic and greater vaccination levels.</p>
<p>The company expects to break even at the EBITDA level by 2023 under current expectations. This accounts for rising revenues, growing take-rates, and lower S&amp;M costs. We continue to take a positive view on the outlook on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> and do not see the short-term contraction in the take-rate as an issue.  Valuations look quite high relative to peers but the company is much closer to breakeven versus peers and given its predominantly 1P model, revenue is not far off the gross profit. </p>
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Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) released a strong set of 2Q2021 results with +55.7% growth in TPV bringing 1H2021 TPV (Total Processing Value) growth to +54%. It reported a +37% YoY growth in revenue for 2Q2021.



 The company's Mitra business continued to be the key driver, accounting for 48% of TPV in 2Q2021 versus 22% a year ago, with a growth rate of +292% YoY in 2Q2021.


There was some reduction in the take-rate in 2Q2021, which some analysts may focus on but this was explained as due to a change in product mix and temporary. We address concerns regarding the take rate later but they seem overdone.




Mitra Bukalapak continues to be the main growth engine for the company, with 2Q2021 Mitra TPV increasing by +237% YoY, to IDR14.2tn.



Mitra Bukalapak’s contribution margin after S&amp;M cost improved from -1.0% of TPV in FY2020 to -0.5% of TPV in Mitra’s operating loss as a ratio to TPV improved from 1.2% in FY20 to 0.6% in 1H2021.





Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) management re-iterated its strategy to continue to help enhance the performance of its Mitra's and sellers on the platform following a more of a Shopify model than one like Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) maintains that around 90% of its Mitra customers use only Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) given that it addresses many uses and allows them to make more money. 
Tokopedia and Shopee are much more reliant on aggressive capital to expand, which is not an effective long-term strategy for Mitra customers. It is also difficult to discount FMCG products for any length of time given that principles keep a handle on price levels.
Management also revealed that its first collaboration with Grab will focus on GrabMart, providing fresh food products for GrabMart's restaurant customers but more collaboration is expected on an incremental basis going forward. 
Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) management is expecting annual growth in TPV of +50%-75% per annum, with 2022 seen as a potentially even stronger year, with better purchasing power coming through post-pandemic and greater vaccination levels.
The company expects to break even at the EBITDA level by 2023 under current expectations. This accounts for rising revenues, growing take-rates, and lower S&amp;M costs. We continue to take a positive view on the outlook on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) and do not see the short-term contraction in the take-rate as an issue.  Valuations look quite high relative to peers but the company is much closer to breakeven versus peers and given its predominantly 1P model, revenue is not far off the gross profit. 









Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Korea Post plans to raise around US$947m via selling all of its 2.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a>. </p><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-lack-of-lock-up-and-msci-ftse-index-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-trading-one-for-instis-closer-look-at-ftse-and-msci-inclusion-remain-buyers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-msci-done-missed-ftse-by-a-whisker" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker</a></li>
</ul></div><p> In this note we will talk about the deal dynamics and provide updates since our previous note.</p>

Korea Post plans to raise around US$947m via selling all of its 2.5% stake in KakaoBank (323410 KS). We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:

Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear, 
Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be
Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and
Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers
Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker
 In this note we will talk about the deal dynamics and provide updates since our previous note.

Kakao Bank Placement - Its Expensive but the Discount Is Enticing

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #47

Headline Developments: As has been widely expected, China has moved to greatly reduce the time under-18s spend playing computer games. Under the...

Granite Bay Capital

Tencent - An Analytical Framework For "Tomorrow's" Gaming Minors

Tencent's investors' response to latest online gaming restrictions have been measured due to small revenue contribution from minors. We discuss how...

Jason Yap, CFA

Asian Insurtech: The New Golden Child in Town?

A deep dive into 12 Insurtech companies in China, India, and Southeast Asia is presented in this Original. The key Insurtech trends and themes in...

Alec Tseung

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - The Magic of Mitra

Bukalapak released an impressive set of 2Q2021 results, with the MSME Mitra business now close to half its TPV and showing triple-digit YoY growth....

Angus Mackintosh

Kakao Bank Placement - Its Expensive but the Discount Is Enticing

Korea Post plans to raise around US$947m via selling all of its 2.5% stake in KakaoBank (323410 KS). This is a clean-up trade.

Sumeet Singh

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