Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vipshop has underperformed, on a 12-month basis, due to a slowdown in active user growth, which has spilt over into slower revenue growth and contracting earnings.</li>
<li>Material equity investments, accompanied by strategic cooperation agreements, by Tencent and JD.com in December 2017 catalysed significant user growth over the subsequent 3 years.</li>
<li>The recent de-rating once again flags Vipshop as an attractive takeover target for its current strategic shareholders and broader eCommerce rivals, including nascent disruptors and live-streaming operators.</li>
</ul>


Vipshop has underperformed, on a 12-month basis, due to a slowdown in active user growth, which has spilt over into slower revenue growth and contracting earnings.
Material equity investments, accompanied by strategic cooperation agreements, by Tencent and JD.com in December 2017 catalysed significant user growth over the subsequent 3 years.
The recent de-rating once again flags Vipshop as an attractive takeover target for its current strategic shareholders and broader eCommerce rivals, including nascent disruptors and live-streaming operators.


Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 01 based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Gas (384 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 01 based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Gas (384 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks: Tencent Led the 52 Week High Buybacks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

FWD Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.</li>
<li>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.</li>
</ul>


FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.


FWD Pre-IPO - Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

Belle International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing, which would mark its return to the stock market after five years.</li>
<li>Belle Fashion is the largest China-based fashion footwear and apparel group based on 2020 retail sales value, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). </li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing, which would mark its return to the stock market after five years.
Belle Fashion is the largest China-based fashion footwear and apparel group based on 2020 retail sales value, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). 
In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Belle Fashion Pre-IPO - The Negatives - You'll Stumble in My Footsteps

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

In this insight, we analyse Vipshop’s user base growth, financial performance, and earnings outlook, take an updated look at current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks: Tencent Led the 52 Week High Buybacks

We highlight 52 week high share repurchases and the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares last week: were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FWD Pre-IPO - Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO - The Negatives - You'll Stumble in My Footsteps

Belle Fashion aims to raise around US$1bn in its HK listing, which would mark its return to the stock market after five years. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)