Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.</li>
<li>Everyone was expecting a delay, but that caused the stock to fall. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, then China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further delay.</li>
<li>I saw a 9% gross spread yesterday and thought "Geez", that's a buy." A day later, it's 6%. Still wide, still interesting. And that has set a boundary.</li>
</ul>


Late last month, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
Everyone was expecting a delay, but that caused the stock to fall. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, then China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further delay.
I saw a 9% gross spread yesterday and thought "Geez", that's a buy." A day later, it's 6%. Still wide, still interesting. And that has set a boundary.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

David Blennerhassett

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. </li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> merger; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>'s hybrid Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
Two new deals were discussed this week: the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) / Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) merger; and Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)'s hybrid Offer. 
Key updates took place on Huafa Property Services (982 HK), Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK),CPMC (906 HK), Seven &amp; I (3382 JP), Shinko Electric (6967 JP), and Arvida (ARV NZ).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally "scheduled" to start in late August 2024.</li>
<li>"Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed" so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.shinko.co.jp/english/news/docs/20240826_02.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally "scheduled" to start in late August 2024.
"Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed" so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.
The announcement appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.


Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal </li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>'s non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.; and EQT's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/propertyguru-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28149:1" rel="noopener">PropertyGuru (PGRU US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GaPack (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal 
Two new deals were discussed this week: Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)'s non-binding proposal for Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).; and EQT's Offer for PropertyGuru (PGRU US).
Key updates took place on APM Human Services (APM AU), TCM (570 HK), GaPack (468 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: APM Human Services, TCM, Alps Logistics, Fancl, Jeisys Medical, PropertyGuru

Japan

TATSUTA ELECTRIC WIRE AND CABLE CO., LTD. manufactures wires and cables. The Company's products include power cables, optic fiber cables and its related devices, bonding wires, and water leakage detection systems.  Tatsuta Wire & Cable also produces environmentally friendly cables.

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Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP)

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Shinko hits a multi-month low and a 9% spread, then bounces hard. Tech rebounds. Ibiden is cheaper than it has been in 18mos and has an FX forecast...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

For the month of Aug, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$56bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

The Shinko Electric Tender start has been delayed by lack of approval from Vietnam and China. China was expected. Now we wait to Jan-25? I see...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: APM Human Services, TCM, Alps Logistics, Fancl, Jeisys Medical, PropertyGuru

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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