Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> scheme of arrangement has received shareholder approval and regulatory approvals and should be implemented in the short-term.</li>
<li>There will be small buying from global passive trackers while there will be much bigger buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
<li>In total, we estimate passive trackers will need to buy 25.2m shares (US$308m; 1.9x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> with buying coming in at different times. </li>
</ul>


The Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) scheme of arrangement has received shareholder approval and regulatory approvals and should be implemented in the short-term.
There will be small buying from global passive trackers while there will be much bigger buying from NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) trackers.
In total, we estimate passive trackers will need to buy 25.2m shares (US$308m; 1.9x ADV) of Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) with buying coming in at different times. 


Tata Motors (TTMT IN): Index Impact of DVR Cancellation

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-16955'>SK Hynix</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-315'>Softbank Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-12763'>Tata Motors ADR</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20776'>UPL Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-473'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Vanke SK HynixSoftbank GroupTata Motors ADRUPL LtdWynn Macau Ltd

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke  , SK Hynix, Softbank Group, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors introduces the Tata.ev app to help EV owners find and navigate to reliable charging stations.</li>
<li>Bharti Airtel postpones the call for INR15,000 crore of its rights issue.</li>
<li>SBI will deploy 2,000 executives to enhance its wealth management services, aiming to attract high-net-worth individuals.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors introduces the Tata.ev app to help EV owners find and navigate to reliable charging stations.
Bharti Airtel postpones the call for INR15,000 crore of its rights issue.
SBI will deploy 2,000 executives to enhance its wealth management services, aiming to attract high-net-worth individuals.


# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors plans to split into TML Commercial Vehicles and a merged PV, EV, and JLR entity, creating focused companies.</li>
<li>TVS Motor's July sales rose 9%, with EV sales soaring 61%, reflecting strong growth.</li>
<li>Hero FinCorp seeks INR 3,668 crore through an IPO, aiming to boost capital for lending activities.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors plans to split into TML Commercial Vehicles and a merged PV, EV, and JLR entity, creating focused companies.
TVS Motor's July sales rose 9%, with EV sales soaring 61%, reflecting strong growth.
Hero FinCorp seeks INR 3,668 crore through an IPO, aiming to boost capital for lending activities.


# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

India

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

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Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tata Motors (TTMT IN): Index Impact of DVR Cancellation

With all approvals received, Tata Motors DVRs will be cancelled and new Tata Motors shares will be issued. That will result in increased weight for...

Brian Freitas

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , SK Hynix, Softbank Group, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.

Sudarshan Bhandari

# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

​CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tata Motors (TTMT IN): Index Impact of DVR Cancellation

With all approvals received, Tata Motors DVRs will be cancelled and new Tata Motors shares will be issued. That will result in increased weight for...

Brian Freitas

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , SK Hynix, Softbank Group, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

​Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.

Sudarshan Bhandari

# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

​Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.

Sudarshan Bhandari

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.

Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.