Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Building on our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-autos-monthly-auto-tracker-for-april" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39126" rel="noopener">India Autos | Monthly Auto Tracker for April</a> that tracks regular and alternative data, this month's data clearly indicates increasing interest for personal transport, compact and efficient vehicles and a preference towards motorcycles. 
However, the same is yet to reflect in volumes as well as registration data.  The current search trends indicate interest is coming back and could indicate the worst in terms of volumes could potentially be soon over for the sector. 
This is a Joint insight with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal</a>

Building on our earlier insight India Autos | Monthly Auto Tracker for April that tracks regular and alternative data, this month's data clearly indicates increasing interest for personal transport, compact and efficient vehicles and a preference towards motorcycles. 
However, the same is yet to reflect in volumes as well as registration data.  The current search trends indicate interest is coming back and could indicate the worst in terms of volumes could potentially be soon over for the sector. 
This is a Joint insight with Nitin Mangal 

India Autos | Auto Tracker for May - Personal Transport Preference Increasing

This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alternative-data-india-consumer-tracking-recovery-if-and-when-it-comes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39289" rel="noopener">Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes</a>.
Our high-frequency and alternative indicators do indicate a gradual uptick but still far below normal levels when it comes to consumer spending. There is high uncertainty regarding current employment, Rural India is expected to lead growth. 
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The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal.</a>
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This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to our insight Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes.
Our high-frequency and alternative indicators do indicate a gradual uptick but still far below normal levels when it comes to consumer spending. There is high uncertainty regarding current employment, Rural India is expected to lead growth. 

The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider Nitin Mangal.


Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India to Lead Growth

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6827'>Abm Investama</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26799'>Future Retail</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Abm InvestamaFuture RetailTata Motors Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Future Retail, Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14882'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Seazen (Formerly Future Land)Tata Motors Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Tata Motors Ltd

Trung Nguyen

Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19 and high operating leverage. There will likely be a substantial deterioration in Q1/20-21, with the company's projected cash burn being in line with our expectations (JLR’s alone should be c. GBP 2 bn). The financial risk profile has also weakened. While the liquidity position seems large (as of FYE 2019-20), this would be driven by the extent of the impact from COVID-19 on sales going forward. We believe that the company's poor results are likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the pandemic only from mid-March onwards. Hence, the worst effects should be felt in Q1/20-21 (ending in June). While various economies are starting to open up, many locations are suffering second waves of COVID-19 infections. Thus, we expect the global economy to take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe Tata Motors' credit profile may become stressed.

  Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19 and high operating leverage. There will likely be a substantial deterioration in Q1/20-21, with the company's projected cash burn being in line with our expectations (JLR’s alone should be c. GBP 2 bn). The financial risk profile has also weakened. While the liquidity position seems large (as of FYE 2019-20), this would be driven by the extent of the impact from COVID-19 on sales going forward.   We believe that the company's poor results are likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the pandemic only from mid-March onwards. Hence, the worst effects should be felt in Q1/20-21 (ending in June). While various economies are starting to open up, many locations are suffering second waves of COVID-19 infections. Thus, we expect the global economy to take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe Tata Motors' credit profile may become stressed. 

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

India

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

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Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)

India Autos | Auto Tracker for May - Personal Transport Preference Increasing

Building on our earlier insight India Autos | Monthly Auto Tracker for April that tracks regular and alternative data, this month's data clearly...

Pranav Bhavsar

Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India to Lead Growth

This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Future Retail, Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

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