Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> has reiterated FY25 guidance, indicating sequentially better financial performance in Q2FY25 as well as H2FY25. Overseas business and royalty income are on strong footing.</li>
<li>Shionogi has acquired the exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan. With better efficacy and safety profile, and sizable patient population, Quviviq should be a significant revenue contributor.</li>
<li>Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) has reiterated FY25 guidance, indicating sequentially better financial performance in Q2FY25 as well as H2FY25. Overseas business and royalty income are on strong footing.
Shionogi has acquired the exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan. With better efficacy and safety profile, and sizable patient population, Quviviq should be a significant revenue contributor.
Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Performance to Improve in H2; Upcoming Drugs to Accelerate Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Since the BoJ interest rate hike in July, the Yen appreciated ~5% to ¥142.74. Considerable amount of appreciation may be dilutive on the overall performance of export-oriented industry.</li>
<li>Top healthcare players have assumed a higher exchange rate (than the current prevailing rate) for their respective full-year FY25 guidance.</li>
<li>With benefit of favorable foreign exchange gradually fading and potentially diminishing guidance, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Since the BoJ interest rate hike in July, the Yen appreciated ~5% to ¥142.74. Considerable amount of appreciation may be dilutive on the overall performance of export-oriented industry.
Top healthcare players have assumed a higher exchange rate (than the current prevailing rate) for their respective full-year FY25 guidance.
With benefit of favorable foreign exchange gradually fading and potentially diminishing guidance, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.


Japan Healthcare: Strong Yen to Negatively Impact Financial Performance; Volatility to Continue

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> announced better-than-expected Q1FY25 result, with all key parameters exceeding expectation. Q1 revenue increased 24% to ¥436B, mainly driven by 59% growth in Enhertu sales to ¥130B.</li>
<li>For its approved indications, Enhertu maintained #1 market share for new patients in U.S. The drug is expected to have blockbuster status in both US and Europe this year.</li>
<li>Despite a good progress in Q1FY25, especially on profitability front, Daiichi Sankyo has reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Better-than-anticipated Enhertu revenue and Fx should lead to guidance revision later this year.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) announced better-than-expected Q1FY25 result, with all key parameters exceeding expectation. Q1 revenue increased 24% to ¥436B, mainly driven by 59% growth in Enhertu sales to ¥130B.
For its approved indications, Enhertu maintained #1 market share for new patients in U.S. The drug is expected to have blockbuster status in both US and Europe this year.
Despite a good progress in Q1FY25, especially on profitability front, Daiichi Sankyo has reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Better-than-anticipated Enhertu revenue and Fx should lead to guidance revision later this year.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.</li>
<li>Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.</li>
</ul>


With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.
Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

<ul>
<li>During 1H24 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> reported 18% YoY growth in revenue from pharmaceuticals segment to ¥767B, mainly driven by a 27% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥122B.</li>
<li>The company has revised upward 2024 revenue and business profit, while reduced 2024 operating and net profit guidance due to the recording of an impairment loss.</li>
<li>Otsuka is acquiring Jnana Therapeutics for $800M. The transaction includes JNT-517, a potential first-in-class oral treatment for Phenylketonuria, a rare inherited metabolic disorder. The acquisition will close in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


During 1H24 Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 18% YoY growth in revenue from pharmaceuticals segment to ¥767B, mainly driven by a 27% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥122B.
The company has revised upward 2024 revenue and business profit, while reduced 2024 operating and net profit guidance due to the recording of an impairment loss.
Otsuka is acquiring Jnana Therapeutics for $800M. The transaction includes JNT-517, a potential first-in-class oral treatment for Phenylketonuria, a rare inherited metabolic disorder. The acquisition will close in 3Q24.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): H1 Revenue Rises 17% on Rexulti; Picks Up Jnana Therapeutics for $800M

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Performance to Improve in H2; Upcoming Drugs to Accelerate Growth

Shionogi reiterates FY25 guidance, showing improved financial performance in Q2FY25 and H2FY25. The company has acquired distribution rights for...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Healthcare: Strong Yen to Negatively Impact Financial Performance; Volatility to Continue

Healthcare players in Japan are expected to adjust FY25 guidance due to exchange rate appreciation, requiring investors to be cautious in their...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed

Daiichi Sankyo shares plunged due to mixed clinical trial result of Dato-DXd in lung cancer. While Dato-DXd showed a 2.3-month improvement in...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): H1 Revenue Rises 17% on Rexulti; Picks Up Jnana Therapeutics for $800M

Otsuka reports 27% revenue growth in Rexulti in 1H24. The company raised 2024 sales and business profit guidance. Acquisition of Jnana...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Performance to Improve in H2; Upcoming Drugs to Accelerate Growth

​Shionogi reiterates FY25 guidance, showing improved financial performance in Q2FY25 and H2FY25. The company has acquired distribution rights for...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Healthcare: Strong Yen to Negatively Impact Financial Performance; Volatility to Continue

Healthcare players in Japan are expected to adjust FY25 guidance due to exchange rate appreciation, requiring investors to be cautious in their...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed

Daiichi Sankyo shares plunged due to mixed clinical trial result of Dato-DXd in lung cancer. While Dato-DXd showed a 2.3-month improvement in...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): H1 Revenue Rises 17% on Rexulti; Picks Up Jnana Therapeutics for $800M

​Otsuka reports 27% revenue growth in Rexulti in 1H24. The company raised 2024 sales and business profit guidance. Acquisition of Jnana...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi reiterates FY25 guidance, showing improved financial performance in Q2FY25 and H2FY25. The company has acquired distribution rights for...

Otsuka reports 27% revenue growth in Rexulti in 1H24. The company raised 2024 sales and business profit guidance. Acquisition of Jnana...