TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

DoorDash’s first earnings call confirmed many of the concerns from our initiation. The key point for 2021? We think estimates that came up to reflect the easy COVID comp for 1Q21 will fall the rest of the year as COVID recedes, which will result in the rising customer acquisition costs cited in 4Q and 2021 meeting falling LTVs as customers return to dining out. DoorDash is likely to continually underperform expectations.Why do we think DoorDash is worth maybe half its current valuation?We’ll leave it to “NEUTRAL” rated Goldman Sachs to sum it up, “With the stock trading near 20x 2022E EV/Gross Profit vs. GSe 28% 3-year Gross Profit CAGR compared to the peer average of 10x on 30% growth we believe much of that opportunity is reflected in the current valuation. Therefore, we remain Neutral rated, while our 12-month price target goes to $145 from $135 to reflect revised estimates and current comp multiples.”As always, if you can’t explain why one company is worth 2x more then all its peers…it’s a neutral.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

DoorDash’s first earnings call confirmed many of the concerns from our initiation. The key point for 2021? We think estimates that came up to reflect the easy COVID comp for 1Q21 will fall the rest of the year as COVID recedes, which will result in the rising customer acquisition costs cited in 4Q and 2021 meeting falling LTVs as customers return to dining out. DoorDash is likely to continually underperform expectations.Why do we think DoorDash is worth maybe half its current valuation?We’ll leave it to “NEUTRAL” rated Goldman Sachs to sum it up, “With the stock trading near 20x 2022E EV/Gross Profit vs. GSe 28% 3-year Gross Profit CAGR compared to the peer average of 10x on 30% growth we believe much of that opportunity is reflected in the current valuation. Therefore, we remain Neutral rated, while our 12-month price target goes to $145 from $135 to reflect revised estimates and current comp multiples.”As always, if you can’t explain why one company is worth 2x more then all its peers…it’s a neutral.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

DoorDash 4Q20 Earnings: This Is a Business Worth $50B?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

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The goal of this new product is to monitor the progress of upcoming and recently-completed IPOs and deals in the Asian logistics, transportation and travel space. We'll also look at deals in related segments, including eCommerce fulfillment, ride-hailing, online food delivery, and warehousing.
Each issue will feature news and commentary on planned IPOs and other major deals in the logistics space, plus an update on the performance of recent IPOs and deals. We'll also profile a prominent private Asian company in the sector that could soon seek a public listing.  
In this issue we review planned listings from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zim-integrated-shipping-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31124:1" rel="noopener">ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)</a>, check in on the share performance of four recent logistics-related IPOs, and introduce private Hive-Box Holdings (HBH), the world's largest operator of smart lockers.




The goal of this new product is to monitor the progress of upcoming and recently-completed IPOs and deals in the Asian logistics, transportation and travel space. We'll also look at deals in related segments, including eCommerce fulfillment, ride-hailing, online food delivery, and warehousing.
Each issue will feature news and commentary on planned IPOs and other major deals in the logistics space, plus an update on the performance of recent IPOs and deals. We'll also profile a prominent private Asian company in the sector that could soon seek a public listing.  
In this issue we review planned listings from Dida (DIDA HK) and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US), check in on the share performance of four recent logistics-related IPOs, and introduce private Hive-Box Holdings (HBH), the world's largest operator of smart lockers. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Logistics Capital Markets Monitor | IPOs | M&A | Pre-IPO Profile: Hive-Box Holdings

Chinese super app <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> reported Q320 results earlier this week. Total revenue increased by 29% YoY in the period, but core Operating Profit declined by around 23% YoY, mainly due to growing losses in Meituan's New Initiatives segment. Meanwhile, Meituan's largest operating segment, Food Delivery, reported a 33% YoY jump in revenue, driven in part by a 61% increase in advertising and other revenue. However, margins on actual food delivery activity fell sharply compared to both Q319 and Q220. The reasons for the sharp dip in food delivery margins in Q320 are still unclear to us, but this crucial source of profits deserves close attention from investors, in our view. We also worry investors may be growing impatient with outsized losses in the New Initiatives segment.

Chinese super app Meituan (3690 HK) reported Q320 results earlier this week. Total revenue increased by 29% YoY in the period, but core Operating Profit declined by around 23% YoY, mainly due to growing losses in Meituan's New Initiatives segment. Meanwhile, Meituan's largest operating segment, Food Delivery, reported a 33% YoY jump in revenue, driven in part by a 61% increase in advertising and other revenue. However, margins on actual food delivery activity fell sharply compared to both Q319 and Q220. The reasons for the sharp dip in food delivery margins in Q320 are still unclear to us, but this crucial source of profits deserves close attention from investors, in our view. We also worry investors may be growing impatient with outsized losses in the New Initiatives segment.

Meituan: 'Delivery Margin' Dipped in Q3 | How Patient Will Investors Be with 'New Initiatives'?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

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Our base case valuation of DoorDash is $45 billion or $116 per share, which is 37% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $75 per $85 per share. Given the attractive upside, we have positive view of the DoorDash IPO. In our comparable companies valuation analysis, we used <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grubhub-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5881:1" rel="noopener">Grubhub Inc (GRUB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delivery-hero-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24416:1" rel="noopener">Delivery Hero SE (DHER GY)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/just-eat-takeaway-908587b0-d4c9-488a-801b-2910cf29e24b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28360:1" rel="noopener">Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA) </a>to value DoorDash.
To derive our target market cap of $45 billion, we used a P/S multiple of 8.7x based on our estimated sales of $5.2 billion in 2021. Our target price valuation multiple of 8.7x is based on a 75% premium to Just Eat Takeaway's P/S multiple of 5.0x, which is at the high end of the comps' valuation multiple in 2021.
We believe this valuation multiple premium to DoorDash is appropriate versus its comps mainly due to DoorDash's higher sales growth rate, more dominant market share, higher operating margins, and a more aggressive improvement in operating margins in the past two years.
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Our base case valuation of DoorDash is $45 billion or $116 per share, which is 37% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $75 per $85 per share. Given the attractive upside, we have positive view of the DoorDash IPO. In our comparable companies valuation analysis, we used Grubhub Inc (GRUB US), Delivery Hero SE (DHER GY), and Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA) to value DoorDash.
To derive our target market cap of $45 billion, we used a P/S multiple of 8.7x based on our estimated sales of $5.2 billion in 2021. Our target price valuation multiple of 8.7x is based on a 75% premium to Just Eat Takeaway's P/S multiple of 5.0x, which is at the high end of the comps' valuation multiple in 2021.
We believe this valuation multiple premium to DoorDash is appropriate versus its comps mainly due to DoorDash's higher sales growth rate, more dominant market share, higher operating margins, and a more aggressive improvement in operating margins in the past two years.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus Ltd (DADA US)</a> is seeking to raise as much as $521 million (at the last close price) through an issue of 9 million ADSs. The funds will be used for implementing its marketing initiatives and growing its user base, for investing in technology and research and development, as well as for general corporate purposes.The follow-on offering comes just five months from the June IPO, where Dada Nexus raised net proceeds of $297.9 million at $16 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3.6x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $450 million at the end of 9M20. <div class="content-highlight">We remain bullish on Dada Nexus’ prospects and believe that the company remains on track to combine its fast-paced growth with profitability. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive for the growth on offer. Overall, we would participate in the placement.</div>

Dada Nexus Ltd (DADA US) is seeking to raise as much as $521 million (at the last close price) through an issue of 9 million ADSs. The funds will be used for implementing its marketing initiatives and growing its user base, for investing in technology and research and development, as well as for general corporate purposes.The follow-on offering comes just five months from the June IPO, where Dada Nexus raised net proceeds of $297.9 million at $16 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3.6x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $450 million at the end of 9M20. We remain bullish on Dada Nexus’ prospects and believe that the company remains on track to combine its fast-paced growth with profitability. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive for the growth on offer. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

United Kingdom

Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. is an online food ordering company. The Company offers mobile application for ordering and delivering of food and beverages. Just Eat Takeaway.com serves customers worldwide.

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Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA)

DoorDash 4Q20 Earnings: This Is a Business Worth $50B?

DoorDash's 4Q20 earnings confirmed our bearish thesis. The company is continuing to spend higher and higher amounts on customer acquisition due to...

Aaron Gabin

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Logistics Capital Markets Monitor | IPOs | M&A | Pre-IPO Profile: Hive-Box Holdings

In this week's Logistics Capital Markets Monitor: updates on ZIM and DiDa ChuXing IPOs, performance of recent IPOs in the Logistics space, and a...

Tracking Traffic

Meituan: 'Delivery Margin' Dipped in Q3 | How Patient Will Investors Be with 'New Initiatives'?

Meituan posted strong top-line growth in Q320, but core profitability dipped. We are concerned about 'delivery margin' and wonder how long...

Tracking Traffic

DoorDash IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of DoorDash is $45 billion or $116 per share, which is 37% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $75 to $85...

Douglas Kim

Dada Nexus Placement: Ascend and Deliver

Dada Nexus is seeking to raise as much as $521 million through an issue of 9 million ADSs. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

Arun George

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