Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On an implied stub and simple ratio, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a></strong> is trading rich to 60.9%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is trading rich to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading "Rich"

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> is anticipating 32% YoY decline in revenue to ¥53B in FY24. Both operating and net profits are expected to decline more than 60% YoY in FY24.</li>
<li>The company has formulated the medium-term management plan 2026 for the three-year period ending in FY26, with the final-year quantitative targets being operating profit of ¥15 billion and ROE 8%.</li>
<li>Considering Takara Bio’s FY24 operating profit guidance of ¥8B, FY26 target seems to be aggressive and difficult to achieve.</li>
</ul>



Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) is anticipating 32% YoY decline in revenue to ¥53B in FY24. Both operating and net profits are expected to decline more than 60% YoY in FY24.
The company has formulated the medium-term management plan 2026 for the three-year period ending in FY26, with the final-year quantitative targets being operating profit of ¥15 billion and ROE 8%.
Considering Takara Bio’s FY24 operating profit guidance of ¥8B, FY26 target seems to be aggressive and difficult to achieve.


Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> has raised FY23 revenue, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 1%, 5%, and 5%, respectively, due to better-than-anticipated sales of the COVID-19 testing-related reagents.</li>
<li>Takara Bio is heavily exposed to the COVID-19-related reagent revenue. However, the company is witnessing decline in general research reagent revenue in Japan.</li>
<li>With the shrinking demand for the COVID-19 testing and slower-than-expected recovery in general research reagent in Japan, revenue is expected to decline 25% YoY in FY24.</li>
</ul>



Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) has raised FY23 revenue, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 1%, 5%, and 5%, respectively, due to better-than-anticipated sales of the COVID-19 testing-related reagents.
Takara Bio is heavily exposed to the COVID-19-related reagent revenue. However, the company is witnessing decline in general research reagent revenue in Japan.
With the shrinking demand for the COVID-19 testing and slower-than-expected recovery in general research reagent in Japan, revenue is expected to decline 25% YoY in FY24.


Takara Bio (4974 JP): Shrinking COVID-19 Testing Demand to Impact Near-Term Revenue Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.</li>
<li>Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.</li>
<li>For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>


As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.
Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.
For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.


2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

<ul>
<li>Over the last six months, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei Group (4565 JP)</a> gained 37%, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> plunged 21%. During the same time, benchmark indices Nikkei 225 and Topix gained 1.8%.</li>
<li>Sosei is expected to continue its outperformance driven by clinical progress of the existing collaboration programs. Sosei’s strong track record of drug discovery enhances conviction on its future growth potential.</li>
<li>Takara has been on an accelerated growth path since FY21, thanks to COVID-19 testing revenue. The company will be negatively impacted by the declining demand for the COVID-19 tests.</li>
</ul>


Over the last six months, Sosei Group (4565 JP) gained 37%, while Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) plunged 21%. During the same time, benchmark indices Nikkei 225 and Topix gained 1.8%.
Sosei is expected to continue its outperformance driven by clinical progress of the existing collaboration programs. Sosei’s strong track record of drug discovery enhances conviction on its future growth potential.
Takara has been on an accelerated growth path since FY21, thanks to COVID-19 testing revenue. The company will be negatively impacted by the declining demand for the COVID-19 tests.


Japan Healthcare: Pair Trade Ideas- Long Sosei Group (4565 JP), Short Takara Bio (4974 JP)

Japan

GNI Group Ltd. develops therapeutic pharmaceutical products utilizing Genome analysis. The Company targets diseases indigenous to Asian countries. GNI controls the whole process of drug discovery by conducting clinical trials, research and development, and marketing.  The Company owns global subsidiaries in China and the US.

Sanbio Co Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells regenerative cell re lated pharmaceutical products.

Japan Tissue Engineering Company., Ltd. is a medical biotechnology company. The Company develops regenerative medicine using tissue engineering technology. Japan Tissue Engineering also provides research support services.

Pharma Foods International Co.,Ltd. produces and sells bioengineered foods for commercial use.  The Company researches and develops physiologically functional foods.

CellSeed Inc. develops Cell-sheet regenerative medicine. The company cultures cells and builds cell-sheets to regenerate lost or functionally imparied tissues and organs. CellSeed Inc. also supports regenerative medicine industry by providing leading technology and solutions.

Healios K.K. researches and develops iPSC Regenerative Medicine and Compound Drugs. The company researches for the development of treatment for Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

ReproCell Incorporated develops iPS (Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell) business and clinical examination for organ transplantation based on human iPS and ES (Embryonic Stem Cell) technology.

CanBas Company Ltd. is a biopharmaceutical company that develops anti-cancer drugs with fewer side effects.  The Company's core technologies include drugs that target the G2 checkpoint and a screening system to find selective abrogators of the G2 checkpoint.

Oncolys BioPharma Inc. provides pharmaceutical and diagnostic products and services.. The Company researches, develops, manufactures and sells drugs targeting cancer and serious infectious diseases and also provides inspection services for viruses.

NanoCarrier Co., Ltd. is a biotech company that utilizes micellar nanoparticle (polymeric micelles) technology for the production and development of pharmaceuticals focusing mainly on cancer therapies.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Company Limited manufactures absorbable biomedical materials. The Company targets therapeutic areas such as orthopedics, anti-adhesion and hemostasis, ophthalmology, and wound care and tissue filling.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (6826 HK)

Mesoblast Limited provides biomedical services. The Company develops drugs for cardiovascular diseases, oncology, hematology, and spine orthopedic disorders treatment. Mesoblast conducts its business worldwide.

Da An Gene Company Limited of Sun Yat-Sen University researches, develops, manufactures, and sells fluorescence Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) diagnostic kits and related medical equipment.  The Company's products are used in diagnosing Hepatitis B virus, Hepatitis C virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, chlamydia trachomatis, and SARS coronavirus.

Jinyu Bio-Technology Co Ltd manufactures and markets biopharmaceuticals for animals and cashmere products.  The Company also produces linseed oil and invests in real estate development business.

Jinyu Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. (600201 CH)

Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. researches, develops, and produces blood, biochemical, and dermatological pharmaceuticals. The Company's main products include blood albumin, interferon, and thymus peptides.

Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) (600556 CH)

Medy-Tox Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches, develops and manufactures biopharmaceutical products using clostridium botulinum which is a microorganism toxin.

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on identifying, developing, and delivering therapies to people living with rare disease. Travere Therapeutics serves customers worldwide.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat chronic liver diseases utilizing proprietary bile acid chemistry. Intercept Pharmaceuticals serves customers throughout the United States.

Formycon AG is a biopharmaceutical company with more than twelve years experience in product development. The company's activities focus on developing and marketing "biosimilars" - biopharmaceuticals which are similar to existing drugs for which patent protection is expiring - as well as the provision of contract services  to other biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the discovery and development of immunosuppressive therapeutics.

TAKARA BIO INC. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches and develops reagents for genome engineering and analysis, technology used for gene therapy, and natural health food products using mushrooms and seaweed body and extracts.

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Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)

StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading "Rich"

If you had set up this stub, I'd be unwinding here. I'd be looking to reverse the stub - short Holdings, Long Bio - however, Bio remains in a...

David Blennerhassett

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan

Takara Bio is anticipating 32% decline in revenue in FY24. Both operating and net profits are expected to decline 60%+ in FY24. The company aims to...

Tina Banerjee

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Shrinking COVID-19 Testing Demand to Impact Near-Term Revenue Growth

Takara Bio is expected to report decelerating revenue due to reducing demand for COVID testing reagents and slower uptake in general research...

Tina Banerjee

2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

From my coverage universe, two Taiwanese stocks generated 59% and 71% returns in nearly six months. New product launch and geography expansion are...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Healthcare: Pair Trade Ideas- Long Sosei Group (4565 JP), Short Takara Bio (4974 JP)

Over the last six months, Sosei shares gained 37%, while Takara Bio shares plunged 21%. No immediate reversal is expected. The performance gap...

Tina Banerjee

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