Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US semi onshoring plays lifted by Vance comments on US production comments.</li>
<li>SMCI preliminary numbers after market pointing to big upside for 2026 and 30% uptake in new DC's.</li>
<li>Shiseido numbers missed but there were bright spots...enough to cover up the blemishes for a squeeze?</li>
</ul>


US semi onshoring plays lifted by Vance comments on US production comments.
SMCI preliminary numbers after market pointing to big upside for 2026 and 30% uptake in new DC's.
Shiseido numbers missed but there were bright spots...enough to cover up the blemishes for a squeeze?


Japan Morning Connection: Selective Squeezes May Continue with Japan Back from Holiday

<ul>
<li>More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. </li>
<li>The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn't mean what most people think it means.</li>
<li>Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.</li>
</ul>


More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn't mean what most people think it means.
Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.


Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

<ul>
<li>Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels and EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles, but you can't make either without the parts that Rohme excels in. </li>
<li>Tesla is up 201% on speculation about its FSD, but Taiyo Yuden, which makes critical parts in FSD systems is down systems, is down 43%.</li>
<li>Kose is down 49%, largely on China woes, but China is no longer big enough to be a problem, and Japan and other regions growth should start to take over. </li>
</ul>


Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels and EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles, but you can't make either without the parts that Rohme excels in. 
Tesla is up 201% on speculation about its FSD, but Taiyo Yuden, which makes critical parts in FSD systems is down systems, is down 43%.
Kose is down 49%, largely on China woes, but China is no longer big enough to be a problem, and Japan and other regions growth should start to take over. 


Unloved Japan Roundup-Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Kose

<ul>
<li>US semi-capex rebound setting a better tone for peers in Japan.</li>
<li>Poor numbers for Rohm and Wolfspeed casting a pall over SiC related.</li>
<li>Taiyo Yuden setting a bad tone for MLCC related, while Shiseido may hit new lows.</li>
</ul>


US semi-capex rebound setting a better tone for peers in Japan.
Poor numbers for Rohm and Wolfspeed casting a pall over SiC related.
Taiyo Yuden setting a bad tone for MLCC related, while Shiseido may hit new lows.


Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

Japan

Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components such as, ceramic capacitors, inductors, hybrid integrated circuits (IC), and ferrite. The Company's products include power supplies, inverters, optical disks, filters, coils, and thermistors.

Price Gauge
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Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Selective Squeezes May Continue with Japan Back from Holiday

US semi onshoring boosted by positive comments on US production, SMCI points to big upside for 2026, Shiseido misses numbers but could bright...

Andrew Jackson

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Roundup-Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Kose

The top 5 performing large-cap stocks in Japan returned 241% on average so far in 2024, but these stocks were all on their knees a short while ago....

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Selective Squeezes May Continue with Japan Back from Holiday

​US semi onshoring boosted by positive comments on US production, SMCI points to big upside for 2026, Shiseido misses numbers but could bright...

Andrew Jackson

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

​Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Roundup-Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Kose

The top 5 performing large-cap stocks in Japan returned 241% on average so far in 2024, but these stocks were all on their knees a short while ago....

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

​US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.

Andrew Jackson

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

US semi onshoring boosted by positive comments on US production, SMCI points to big upside for 2026, Shiseido misses numbers but could bright...

Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...

US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.