Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The reference period for the March 2023 index review for TWSE 50 and 100 indices just came to an end on 20 February.</li>
<li>Previously, it looked like there would not be any index changes during the March 2023 review for these two indices.</li>
<li>However, now it looks like there could be a change. </li>
</ul>


The reference period for the March 2023 index review for TWSE 50 and 100 indices just came to an end on 20 February.
Previously, it looked like there would not be any index changes during the March 2023 review for these two indices.
However, now it looks like there could be a change. 


Quiddity TWSE 50 & 100 Mar 23 Final Expectations: There Could Be a Surprise Index Change!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>NKY, ASX and H shares have been our top long bets with rotation now favoring Korea and Taiwan (China as well) at the expense of Japan.</li>
<li>USD weakness call from DXY 113 and 109 makes Asian equities more attractive into early December and an integral part of our rotation theme.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are favored bets on dips. China will run out of steam near A50 12,900 and act as the lead energy driver for Asia.</li>
</ul>


NKY, ASX and H shares have been our top long bets with rotation now favoring Korea and Taiwan (China as well) at the expense of Japan.
USD weakness call from DXY 113 and 109 makes Asian equities more attractive into early December and an integral part of our rotation theme.
Korea and Taiwan are favored bets on dips. China will run out of steam near A50 12,900 and act as the lead energy driver for Asia.


<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down.</li>
<li>Our relative perform longs (STI and SET 50) are due to drift to support but holding up well. USD is breaking to new highs with momentum.</li>
<li>Asian markets that have held up are now at risk of late-stage capitulation - ASX, Nifty and NKY.</li>
</ul>


Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down.
Our relative perform longs (STI and SET 50) are due to drift to support but holding up well. USD is breaking to new highs with momentum.
Asian markets that have held up are now at risk of late-stage capitulation - ASX, Nifty and NKY.


Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Quiddity TWSE 50 & 100 Mar 23 Final Expectations: There Could Be a Surprise Index Change!

Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT) could move from TWSE 100 to TWSE 50 while Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT) could move from TWSE 50 to TWSE 100.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Asia Long Rotation

NKY, ASX and H shares have been our top long bets with rotation now favoring Korea and Taiwan (China as well) at the expense of Japan.

Thomas Schroeder

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Asia Top Short Update

Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down. ASX,...

Thomas Schroeder