Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!</li>
<li>Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. </li>
<li>Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!
Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. 
Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.


Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies</a> is a high probability inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise</a> is a high probability deletion for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 0.4x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> and sell 4x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be positioning in both stocks, though it appears larger in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> as compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, Alchip Technologies is a high probability inclusion and Feng Tay Enterprise is a high probability deletion for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 0.4x ADV in Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) and sell 4x ADV in Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT). 
There will be positioning in both stocks, though it appears larger in Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) as compared to Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT). 


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)

<ul>
<li>Globalfoundries (GFS) reported Q423 revenues of $1.854 billion, marginally above the midpoint of the guidance range, down 12% YoY and essentially flat sequentially.</li>
<li>Guided Q124 down 18% QoQ with Gross Margin set to fall from 29% to 23%</li>
<li>SMIC will outspend GFS 10x in CapEx terms this year</li>
</ul>


Globalfoundries (GFS) reported Q423 revenues of $1.854 billion, marginally above the midpoint of the guidance range, down 12% YoY and essentially flat sequentially.
Guided Q124 down 18% QoQ with Gross Margin set to fall from 29% to 23%
SMIC will outspend GFS 10x in CapEx terms this year


Globalfoundries. Pressure Grows As Customer Penalties Soar

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: Chinese CPI and PPI inflation data points.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: Chinese CPI and PPI inflation data points.

 Companies mentioned:Hyundai Motor (005380 KS), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT), Baidu (9888 HK)



GEMWeekly (9 Feb 2024): China Macro; Hyundai Motor, SMIC, Tencent, TSMC, Baidu

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.</li>
<li>Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.</li>
<li>The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.
Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.
The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.


SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)

Alchip should replace Feng Tay in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March. Shorts have been covering in Alchip and increasing positions in...

Brian Freitas

Globalfoundries. Pressure Grows As Customer Penalties Soar

GFS Q423 revenues of $1.854 billion, -12% YoY, flat QoQ. Guided Q124 down 18% QoQ with GM set to fall from 29% to 23%. SMIC will outspend GFS 10x...

William Keating

GEMWeekly (9 Feb 2024): China Macro; Hyundai Motor, SMIC, Tencent, TSMC, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)

Alchip should replace Feng Tay in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March. Shorts have been covering in Alchip and increasing positions in...

Brian Freitas

Globalfoundries. Pressure Grows As Customer Penalties Soar

GFS Q423 revenues of $1.854 billion, -12% YoY, flat QoQ. Guided Q124 down 18% QoQ with GM set to fall from 29% to 23%. SMIC will outspend GFS 10x...

William Keating

GEMWeekly (9 Feb 2024): China Macro; Hyundai Motor, SMIC, Tencent, TSMC, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

​SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...