Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is planning to launch its 2nm in 2025.   </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to acquire one High-NA EUV machine this year for R&amp;D purposes, but it will not be used for commercial production.</li>
<li>TSMC is expected to increase the cost of its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) package by around 15% in 2H24.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is planning to launch its 2nm in 2025.   
TSMC is expected to acquire one High-NA EUV machine this year for R&amp;D purposes, but it will not be used for commercial production.
TSMC is expected to increase the cost of its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) package by around 15% in 2H24.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.</li>
<li>This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.</li>
<li>Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.</li>
</ul>


TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.
This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.
Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.


2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Gelsinger excited for AI PC breakthrough at Computex 2024, plans Intel's 40th anniversary event in Taiwan next year.</li><li>MediaTek unveils AI and wireless advancements at Computex 2024, demonstrating commitment to technology innovation.</li><li>Nvidia CEO predicts rise of robots in the future; Taiwan's LEO satellite program delayed by funding and tech transfer issues.</li></ul>

Gelsinger excited for AI PC breakthrough at Computex 2024, plans Intel's 40th anniversary event in Taiwan next year.MediaTek unveils AI and wireless advancements at Computex 2024, demonstrating commitment to technology innovation.Nvidia CEO predicts rise of robots in the future; Taiwan's LEO satellite program delayed by funding and tech transfer issues.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot</li>
<li>Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E </li>
<li>Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot
Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E 
Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Patrick Liao

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Intel, MediaTek, Nvidia, Taiwan's satellite program, India, Vietnam, M&A market, OLED shipments, and key industries showcased at Computex 2024.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Patrick Liao

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Intel, MediaTek, Nvidia, Taiwan's satellite program, India, Vietnam, M&A market, OLED shipments, and key industries showcased at Computex 2024.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

​Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.