Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. </li>
<li>Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? </li>
<li>Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. </li>
</ul>


From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 


Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.</li>
<li>Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  </li>
</ul>


We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

<ul>
<li>Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.</li>
<li>UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?</li>
<li>TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.</li>
</ul>


Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.
UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?
TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.


TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

<ul>
<li>Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done</li>
<li>TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.</li>
<li>Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?</li>
</ul>


Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?


UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at 'Taiwan Speed'</li>
<li>Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge</li>
<li>Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive </li>
</ul>


TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at 'Taiwan Speed'
Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

TSMC to build new fab in Arizona quickly, Phison CEO predicts long-term growth for NAND flash with AI shift to edge, Delta Thailand monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

​MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

​Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

​Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

​TSMC to build new fab in Arizona quickly, Phison CEO predicts long-term growth for NAND flash with AI shift to edge, Delta Thailand monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

TSMC to build new fab in Arizona quickly, Phison CEO predicts long-term growth for NAND flash with AI shift to edge, Delta Thailand monitor...