Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  </li>
<li>The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  
The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Sino American Silicon Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GlobalWafers secures $400M of CHIPS Act funding; boosting semiconductor production capacity and technological advancements.</li><li>Acer targets India's booming smartphone market with a white-label strategy; aiming to capitalize on the growing demand.</li><li>Qualcomm collaborates with Microsoft to revolutionize PCs in the AI era; promising groundbreaking advancements in affordable chip designs.</li></ul>

GlobalWafers secures $400M of CHIPS Act funding; boosting semiconductor production capacity and technological advancements.Acer targets India's booming smartphone market with a white-label strategy; aiming to capitalize on the growing demand.Qualcomm collaborates with Microsoft to revolutionize PCs in the AI era; promising groundbreaking advancements in affordable chip designs.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jul-2024): GlobalWafers gets $400M CHIPS Act funding.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.</li>
<li>Consensus overweights in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia proved costly, though Materials underweights, Saudi underweights and strong stock selection in South Korea stemmed relative losses.</li>
<li>Tencent and TSMC underweights costly: Both stocks are among the top underweights among active GEM investors. Strong performance this quarter contributed to underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.
Consensus overweights in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia proved costly, though Materials underweights, Saudi underweights and strong stock selection in South Korea stemmed relative losses.
Tencent and TSMC underweights costly: Both stocks are among the top underweights among active GEM investors. Strong performance this quarter contributed to underperformance.


Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update.  Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

<ul>
<li>Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming.</li>
<li>Technology Sector Again Drives Returns: Taiwan Technology contributes the most to absolute returns, aided by China &amp; HK and India positions.</li>
<li>Key Stock Overweights Pay Off: Overweights in SK Hynix, Tencent Holdings and HDFC Bank helped offset the drag from Cash holdings over the quarter.</li>
</ul>


Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming.
Technology Sector Again Drives Returns: Taiwan Technology contributes the most to absolute returns, aided by China &amp; HK and India positions.
Key Stock Overweights Pay Off: Overweights in SK Hynix, Tencent Holdings and HDFC Bank helped offset the drag from Cash holdings over the quarter.


Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review:  Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jul-2024): GlobalWafers gets $400M CHIPS Act funding.

GlobalWafers secures $400M from CHIPS Act, Samsung targets wearable sales, ASML sees high demand, Acer eyes India market, Qualcomm/Microsoft...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update. Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.

Steven Holden

Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review: Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming on the quarter.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

​Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jul-2024): GlobalWafers gets $400M CHIPS Act funding.

GlobalWafers secures $400M from CHIPS Act, Samsung targets wearable sales, ASML sees high demand, Acer eyes India market, Qualcomm/Microsoft...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update. Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.

Steven Holden

Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review: Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming on the quarter.

Steven Holden

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...