Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's 2022 outlook is bright, but new drama around Intel's possible orders could define the foundry in 2023</li>
<li>IPhone's 2022 modem is currently equipped with Qualcomm’s design but 2023's will be designed by Apple</li>
<li>TSMC's continuously updated technology roadmap shows it as a tech-leader in the foundry space</li>
</ul>


TSMC's 2022 outlook is bright, but new drama around Intel's possible orders could define the foundry in 2023
IPhone's 2022 modem is currently equipped with Qualcomm’s design but 2023's will be designed by Apple
TSMC's continuously updated technology roadmap shows it as a tech-leader in the foundry space


TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Intel's EUR10 billion semiconductor plant in Germany faces delays due to budget battles over chips and batteries, impacting the nation's technology sector and economic growth.</li><li>Taiwan's luxury car market growth reflects its prosperous economy, while the country continues to prioritize a nuclear-free energy agenda despite increasing energy needs.</li><li>AI is revolutionizing nuclear energy production, enhancing efficiency and safety, leading to innovative developments in the industry and heightened global interest. StarLux Airlines is boosting Taiwan's role as a transit hub in Asia amidst evolving global dynamics.</li></ul>

Intel's EUR10 billion semiconductor plant in Germany faces delays due to budget battles over chips and batteries, impacting the nation's technology sector and economic growth.Taiwan's luxury car market growth reflects its prosperous economy, while the country continues to prioritize a nuclear-free energy agenda despite increasing energy needs.AI is revolutionizing nuclear energy production, enhancing efficiency and safety, leading to innovative developments in the industry and heightened global interest. StarLux Airlines is boosting Taiwan's role as a transit hub in Asia amidst evolving global dynamics.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Oct-2024): Intel's EUR10B plant stalls in Germany.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Tier 2 foundry revenue recovery is taking far longer than most expected. </li>
<li>Globalfoundries 2024 CapEx is less than one tenth of what SMIC is spending. Even Hua Hong is spending more. This makes investors nervous.</li>
<li>Globalfoundries CapEx strategy is a pragmatic one and will pay dividends in the years to come</li>
</ul>


Tier 2 foundry revenue recovery is taking far longer than most expected. 
Globalfoundries 2024 CapEx is less than one tenth of what SMIC is spending. Even Hua Hong is spending more. This makes investors nervous.
Globalfoundries CapEx strategy is a pragmatic one and will pay dividends in the years to come


GlobalFoundries. Share Price Down 17% Below IPO Price & Down 30% Since July. But Why?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +14.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: +1.8% Premium; The ADR Headroom Has Decreased Yet Again</li>
<li>ASE: +5.4% Premium; Short Interest Surging for The Local Shares</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +14.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long at Current Level
UMC: +1.8% Premium; The ADR Headroom Has Decreased Yet Again
ASE: +5.4% Premium; Short Interest Surging for The Local Shares


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Back Below 15%; ASE Short Interest Surging

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

2022 outlook being bright. Intel’s possible orders in 2023. iPhone 2023 will be designed by Apple. TSMC's continuing updated technology roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Oct-2024): Intel's EUR10B plant stalls in Germany.

Intel's semiconductor plant in Germany faces delay due to chip and battery budget battle, Taiwan's luxury car market thrives, AI boosts nuclear...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Back Below 15%; ASE Short Interest Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

2022 outlook being bright. Intel’s possible orders in 2023. iPhone 2023 will be designed by Apple. TSMC's continuing updated technology roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Oct-2024): Intel's EUR10B plant stalls in Germany.

Intel's semiconductor plant in Germany faces delay due to chip and battery budget battle, Taiwan's luxury car market thrives, AI boosts nuclear...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

GlobalFoundries. Share Price Down 17% Below IPO Price & Down 30% Since July. But Why?

GFS 2024 Capex less than 10% of SMIC's Capex. It's a pragmatic & strategic approach, likely to be the right one in the long run.

William Keating

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Back Below 15%; ASE Short Interest Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA