Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Pompeo advises Taiwan to innovate constantly in chip industry to maintain dominance and not be complacent.</li><li>LG Energy Solutions may surpass Panasonic in launching mass production of 46800 batteries, a significant development in the industry.</li><li>Canadian startup CEMWorks is positioning itself as a key player in semiconductors, 5G, and AI with its simulation tool. SDC and LGD lead OLED monitor market with fast growth and gaming focus. China's internet giants see 1Q24 revenue soar thanks to AI technology.</li></ul>

Pompeo advises Taiwan to innovate constantly in chip industry to maintain dominance and not be complacent.LG Energy Solutions may surpass Panasonic in launching mass production of 46800 batteries, a significant development in the industry.Canadian startup CEMWorks is positioning itself as a key player in semiconductors, 5G, and AI with its simulation tool. SDC and LGD lead OLED monitor market with fast growth and gaming focus. China's internet giants see 1Q24 revenue soar thanks to AI technology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.

<ul><li>EVs and smart driving systems in China's car market impacted by price competition, leading to changes in industry dynamics.</li><li>Blue carbon uncertainties could hinder progress towards achieving net-zero goals, says scientist, highlighting need for further research.</li><li>Indian solar firm reducing dependence on Chinese imports for solar components to enhance self-sufficiency, aiming for greater control over supply chain.</li></ul>

EVs and smart driving systems in China's car market impacted by price competition, leading to changes in industry dynamics.Blue carbon uncertainties could hinder progress towards achieving net-zero goals, says scientist, highlighting need for further research.Indian solar firm reducing dependence on Chinese imports for solar components to enhance self-sufficiency, aiming for greater control over supply chain.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-May-2024): EVs and smart driving tech hit by Chinese car market price war.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +17% Premium; Has Remained Above 15% for Over Nearly Two Weeks</li>
<li>ASE: +11.8% Premium; We Continue to View 14%+ as Range to Short From</li>
<li>CHT: +0.6% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +17% Premium; Has Remained Above 15% for Over Nearly Two Weeks
ASE: +11.8% Premium; We Continue to View 14%+ as Range to Short From
CHT: +0.6% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Trading at New High Range, CHT Spread at Short Levels

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> N2 technology in 2H25F, A16 technology will be pilot-production in 2H26 and likely unveiled in around 1H27.</li>
<li>TSMC A16 technology will be utilizing best-in-class backside power delivery solution.</li>
<li>Si Photonics co-exists with traditional Substrates packages, linked with fiber.</li>
</ul>


After Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) N2 technology in 2H25F, A16 technology will be pilot-production in 2H26 and likely unveiled in around 1H27.
TSMC A16 technology will be utilizing best-in-class backside power delivery solution.
Si Photonics co-exists with traditional Substrates packages, linked with fiber.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.

Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate in chips, LGES to surpass Panasonic in battery production, CEMWorks aims to excel in semiconductors, SDC and LGD...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-May-2024): EVs and smart driving tech hit by Chinese car market price war.

Price competition impacts EVs and smart driving systems in China; blue carbon uncertainties challenge net-zero goals; AI PCs face obstacles; Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Trading at New High Range, CHT Spread at Short Levels

TSMC now trading with a higher ADR premium than ASE, when before ASE had persistently always had a higher ADR premium. CHT is at the higher end of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27.

TSMC to introduce A16 technology with advanced power delivery solution, Si Photonics to co-exist with traditional packages.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.

Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate in chips, LGES to surpass Panasonic in battery production, CEMWorks aims to excel in semiconductors, SDC and LGD...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-May-2024): EVs and smart driving tech hit by Chinese car market price war.

Price competition impacts EVs and smart driving systems in China; blue carbon uncertainties challenge net-zero goals; AI PCs face obstacles; Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Trading at New High Range, CHT Spread at Short Levels

​TSMC now trading with a higher ADR premium than ASE, when before ASE had persistently always had a higher ADR premium. CHT is at the higher end of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27.

​TSMC to introduce A16 technology with advanced power delivery solution, Si Photonics to co-exist with traditional packages.

Patrick Liao

TSMC now trading with a higher ADR premium than ASE, when before ASE had persistently always had a higher ADR premium. CHT is at the higher end of...

TSMC to introduce A16 technology with advanced power delivery solution, Si Photonics to co-exist with traditional packages.