Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.</li>
<li>Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.</li>
</ul>


Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.</li>
<li>Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 


TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares' Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs</li>
<li>CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares' Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

<ul>
<li>Will <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> work on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?</li>
<li>Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  </li>
</ul>


Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?
Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement. </li>
<li>
The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
</li>
<li>Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.
</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement. 

The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.

Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.



TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

​TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

​Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

​TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...