Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li><li>FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.</li><li>Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian Decline:  China &amp; HK hits record lows and remains a key underweight.  Australia and Japan near ownership lows and India becomes a key underweight.  Taiwan powers to record highs. </li>
<li>Americas Dominance: The United States remains the top allocation and largest country underweight.  Value funds increase underweight in the USA but Growth funds reduce.  Argentina rises at Brazil’s expense.</li>
<li>EMEA Conviction Overweight: The UK, France, and the Netherlands maintain near-record overweights. France sees some declining interest, while Belgium, Norway, and Finland play diminishing role. MENA underweight grows.</li>
</ul>


Asian Decline:  China &amp; HK hits record lows and remains a key underweight.  Australia and Japan near ownership lows and India becomes a key underweight.  Taiwan powers to record highs. 
Americas Dominance: The United States remains the top allocation and largest country underweight.  Value funds increase underweight in the USA but Growth funds reduce.  Argentina rises at Brazil’s expense.
EMEA Conviction Overweight: The UK, France, and the Netherlands maintain near-record overweights. France sees some declining interest, while Belgium, Norway, and Finland play diminishing role. MENA underweight grows.


Taiwan Shines as China & Japan Decline:  Global Funds Top-Down Positioning Report

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>German Treasury Secretary Yellen Urges US-Europe Collaboration to Counter China's Industrial Dominance </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> Prepared to Disable Advanced Chipmaking Machines in Case of Chinese Invasion of Taiwan</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> to Release Earnings Amid AI-Driven Growth Surge</li>
</ul>


German Treasury Secretary Yellen Urges US-Europe Collaboration to Counter China's Industrial Dominance 

ASML Holding NV (ASML NA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) Prepared to Disable Advanced Chipmaking Machines in Case of Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) to Release Earnings Amid AI-Driven Growth Surge


#1Business Buzz: Countering China's Dominance, Steel Tariff on China, TSMC, ASML, NVIDIA Q1 Results

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24). FY1Q25 revenue beat. ...

CMB International

Taiwan Shines as China & Japan Decline: Global Funds Top-Down Positioning Report

Taiwan allocations rise in face of subdued Asia. USA dominant though Value funds increase underweights. UK, France & Netherlands remain key...

Steven Holden

#1Business Buzz: Countering China's Dominance, Steel Tariff on China, TSMC, ASML, NVIDIA Q1 Results

This blog provides a summary of the top global news from the past 24 hours, keeping you informed with the latest updates from around the world.

Nimish Maheshwari

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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