Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.</li>
<li>Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.</li>
<li>The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.
Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.
The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.


SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,458.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,072mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mega Financial, Umc, Alchip Tech, Delta Elec, Chailease, Asustek Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,458.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,072mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mega Financial, Umc, Alchip Tech, Delta Elec, Chailease, Asustek Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip</a> is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.</li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.</li>
</ul>



Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) could replace Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.

Alchip is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.
Short interest in Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. </li>
<li>Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.</li>
<li>It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.</li>
</ul>


Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. 
Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.
It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

​SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

​Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...