Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level</li>
<li>UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down &amp; Local Short Interest Continues to Surge</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down &amp; Local Short Interest Continues to Surge


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Three Chinese solar firms accused of tax evasion totaling US$2.64B in India, facing legal scrutiny and potential repercussions</li><li>TSMC takes sustainable approach with new zero-waste center in Taichung, reducing environmental impact by 130,000 tons of waste annually</li><li>Zeiss expands presence in India with new capability center, showcasing commitment to innovation and growth in the country, while TSMC recruits PhD talent from Japan for semiconductor research efforts</li></ul>

Three Chinese solar firms accused of tax evasion totaling US$2.64B in India, facing legal scrutiny and potential repercussionsTSMC takes sustainable approach with new zero-waste center in Taichung, reducing environmental impact by 130,000 tons of waste annuallyZeiss expands presence in India with new capability center, showcasing commitment to innovation and growth in the country, while TSMC recruits PhD talent from Japan for semiconductor research efforts

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. </li>
<li>What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. </li>
<li>The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. </li>
</ul>


ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. 
What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 
The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 


ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Foxconn's reforms at Sharp result in significant profit growth in 2Q24.</li><li>Taiwan supply chains brace for impact of Trump's imminent global tariffs.</li><li>Apple to boost iPhone production in India following Trump victory, taking advantage of evolving global trade dynamics.</li></ul>

Foxconn's reforms at Sharp result in significant profit growth in 2Q24.Taiwan supply chains brace for impact of Trump's imminent global tariffs.Apple to boost iPhone production in India following Trump victory, taking advantage of evolving global trade dynamics.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2024): Foxconn reforms boost Sharp's profits.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Chinese solar firms face tax dodge allegations in India, TSMC cuts waste in Taichung, Zeiss opens center in India, TSMC addresses discrimination...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2024): Foxconn reforms boost Sharp's profits.

Foxconn's reforms lead to Sharp's profit growth, Taiwan braces for Trump's tariffs, Nokia and Dixon start manufacturing in India, Apple boosts...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Chinese solar firms face tax dodge allegations in India, TSMC cuts waste in Taichung, Zeiss opens center in India, TSMC addresses discrimination...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

​ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2024): Foxconn reforms boost Sharp's profits.

Foxconn's reforms lead to Sharp's profit growth, Taiwan braces for Trump's tariffs, Nokia and Dixon start manufacturing in India, Apple boosts...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...