Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009</li>
<li>While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.
FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009
While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. 


<ul>
<li>Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.</li>
<li>CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.
Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.
CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 7.7% Premium -- Spread Has Fallen Further, Likely Can Short a Bit Further</li>
<li>ASE: Drops to 5.1% Premium -- Can Consider Going Long at Current Level Due to Maxed Headroom &amp; ASE's Strong Advanced Chip Packaging Story</li>
<li>CHT: Trading at -0.9% Discount -- Good Level to Long the Spread, Rare Discount</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 7.7% Premium -- Spread Has Fallen Further, Likely Can Short a Bit Further
ASE: Drops to 5.1% Premium -- Can Consider Going Long at Current Level Due to Maxed Headroom &amp; ASE's Strong Advanced Chip Packaging Story
CHT: Trading at -0.9% Discount -- Good Level to Long the Spread, Rare Discount


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Contraction Continues; ASE & Chunghwa at Historically Rare Levels

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Contraction Continues; ASE & Chunghwa at Historically Rare Levels

TSMC's premium contraction continues. ASE's premium has fallen substantially and offers potential for going long. CHT is at a rare discount,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

​TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

​Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Contraction Continues; ASE & Chunghwa at Historically Rare Levels

​TSMC's premium contraction continues. ASE's premium has fallen substantially and offers potential for going long. CHT is at a rare discount,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

TSMC's premium contraction continues. ASE's premium has fallen substantially and offers potential for going long. CHT is at a rare discount,...