Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> published great 9M20 results. Management will give FY21 guidance in January but sounded upbeat on its prospects going into FY21.AEM has hired an entire new CEO/CFO/CTO suite over the past 18 months. We believe this highly qualified new C-suit would not have joined AEM if they did not see a clear path of making AEM into a 1 billion USD company going forward. YTD the share price of AEM is up by 75% but has come off its earlier highs. Given FY21 guidance uncertainty and muted consensus expectations (2% revenue growth in FY21 and -1% growth in FY22) we like the risk/reward set-up. The downside is protected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> becoming a takeover target itself at some point but not before the maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.Fair Value of 5 SGD remains (this is based on 10x 2020 EV/EBITDA or 14.7x 2020 P/E). Peers trade at an average of 26.1x 2020 P/E and 16.9x 2020 EV/EBITDA.

AEM Holdings (AEM SP) published great 9M20 results. Management will give FY21 guidance in January but sounded upbeat on its prospects going into FY21.AEM has hired an entire new CEO/CFO/CTO suite over the past 18 months. We believe this highly qualified new C-suit would not have joined AEM if they did not see a clear path of making AEM into a 1 billion USD company going forward. YTD the share price of AEM is up by 75% but has come off its earlier highs. Given FY21 guidance uncertainty and muted consensus expectations (2% revenue growth in FY21 and -1% growth in FY22) we like the risk/reward set-up. The downside is protected by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) becoming a takeover target itself at some point but not before the maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.Fair Value of 5 SGD remains (this is based on 10x 2020 EV/EBITDA or 14.7x 2020 P/E). Peers trade at an average of 26.1x 2020 P/E and 16.9x 2020 EV/EBITDA.

AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside)

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Nothing new here except a few things that the Chinese handset triumverates desire to gain market share in the absence of Huawei.  The problem is it seems Oppo + Vivo +  Xiaomi ("OPX") &gt; Huawei.  Are we all headed for a wake up call in the 1H21 with the Chinese handset oversupply?

Nothing new here except a few things that the Chinese handset triumverates desire to gain market share in the absence of Huawei.  The problem is it seems Oppo + Vivo +  Xiaomi ("OPX") &gt; Huawei.  Are we all headed for a wake up call in the 1H21 with the Chinese handset oversupply?

Hynix Earnings Recap - Oh, Oh - Is Everyone Running the Same Direction?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC has been a significant outperformer versus Samsung Electronics.   How can TSMC continue this performance in the near future?   We take a look at their customer profiles as well what has been priced in and has not for the next few years.

TSMC has been a significant outperformer versus Samsung Electronics.   How can TSMC continue this performance in the near future?   We take a look at their customer profiles as well what has been priced in and has not for the next few years. 

TSMC Vs. Samsung.  Where's the Net Add Upside?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> is currently trading at more than 2 standard deviations above its 5yr- and 10yr historical average PE range.  A premium makes sense given a significant improvement in their competitive positioning and being in the early stages of a cyclical upswing given the advent of 5G, which should also accelerate the adoption of Internet-of-Things applications. 
This raises the question as to what a fair valuation multiple for TSMC should be. In this insight I make a comparative valuation by looking at, arguably, the two most important companies in TSMC’s value chain, both dominant in their competitive environments, namely TSMC’s largest supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a> and their largest customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a>. 
My analysis focuses on the companies’ competitive positioning, geographic exposure, customer concentration, growth profile and outlook, cash flow generation, balance sheets, capital allocation and returns on invested capital to assess what a fair relative valuation might look like.

TSMC (2330 TT) is currently trading at more than 2 standard deviations above its 5yr- and 10yr historical average PE range.  A premium makes sense given a significant improvement in their competitive positioning and being in the early stages of a cyclical upswing given the advent of 5G, which should also accelerate the adoption of Internet-of-Things applications. 
This raises the question as to what a fair valuation multiple for TSMC should be. In this insight I make a comparative valuation by looking at, arguably, the two most important companies in TSMC’s value chain, both dominant in their competitive environments, namely TSMC’s largest supplier ASML Holding NV (ASML NA) and their largest customer Apple Inc (AAPL US). 
My analysis focuses on the companies’ competitive positioning, geographic exposure, customer concentration, growth profile and outlook, cash flow generation, balance sheets, capital allocation and returns on invested capital to assess what a fair relative valuation might look like.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside)

AEM beat consensus for the 7th quarter in a row. An entirely new C-suite can now take the company to its next milestone: 1 billion USD market cap...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Hynix Earnings Recap - Oh, Oh - Is Everyone Running the Same Direction?

Is Chinese handset glut inevitable? It seems that we are headed for a significant supply by Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi to more than offset the hole...

Ken S. Kim

TSMC Vs. Samsung. Where's the Net Add Upside?

Why TSMC is still a buy as we look into 2022. Does Samsung have the scale to keep Qualcomm in their grasp and if not what is the next catalyst for...

Ken S. Kim

SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 Breaks

SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 breakdown points will act as resistance on a rally attempt and the bull bear lines for global risk. Tech earnings today...

Thomas Schroeder

TSMC: A Comparative Valuation

In this insight, I make a comparative valuation by looking at two value-chain companies, both dominant in their own right, namely TSMC’s largest...

Wium Malan, CFA

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