Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.</li>
<li>MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.</li>
<li>Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.</li>
</ul>


MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.
MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.
Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel is promising is that it will advance five process nodes over the next four years, recapturing process leadership from TSMC by 2025, but significantly underspending TSMC in capex.</li>
<li>Overearning in datacenter is unwinding, leading to lower profits...overearning in PCs will unwind in 2022, leading to lower profits.</li>
<li>Lower profits and higher capex means less buybacks to support earnings growth. </li>
</ul>


Intel is promising is that it will advance five process nodes over the next four years, recapturing process leadership from TSMC by 2025, but significantly underspending TSMC in capex.
Overearning in datacenter is unwinding, leading to lower profits...overearning in PCs will unwind in 2022, leading to lower profits.
Lower profits and higher capex means less buybacks to support earnings growth. 


Intel 4Q21: Our Capex Is More Valuable than TSMC’s

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/nvidia-is-said-to-quietly-prepare-to-abandon-takeover-of-arm" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bloomberg reported</a> overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. </li>
<li>This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. </li>
<li>It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.</li>
</ul>



 Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. 
This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. 
It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.


Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

<ul>
<li>To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  </li>
<li>Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.</li>
<li>Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.</li>
</ul>


To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  
Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.
Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. </li>
<li>We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. </li>
<li>Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. 
We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. 
Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

MediaTek will lead in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in...

Patrick Liao

Intel 4Q21: Our Capex Is More Valuable than TSMC’s

Intel's coming Analyst Day must have an earnings reset. Heightened spending and capex will remove buyback support for EPS growth and the longer...

Aaron Gabin

Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. This highlights the overall negative...

Mio Kato

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

GlobalWafers to merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960, and it...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136Bn/47.5% respectively. We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn...

Patrick Liao

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