Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 and 9000 are targeting shipment of ~30-40mn and 5-10mn sets respectively, which means high-end 5G smartphone chipset will aim at 10-14% 5G shipment in 2022.</li>
<li>We consider the inventory argument raised for China smartphone could be a kind of  fake issue.</li>
<li>In 5G era, the PMIC is about 2~3 times of 4G in size with the mature nodes.</li>
</ul>


We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 and 9000 are targeting shipment of ~30-40mn and 5-10mn sets respectively, which means high-end 5G smartphone chipset will aim at 10-14% 5G shipment in 2022.
We consider the inventory argument raised for China smartphone could be a kind of  fake issue.
In 5G era, the PMIC is about 2~3 times of 4G in size with the mature nodes.


MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> has dropped from 10% to nearly parity in slightly less than a month.</li>
<li>There is still no headroom available on the ADR and we expect the premium to move higher once the selling on the ADR is complete.</li>
<li>The SGX has recently launched single stock futures on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a>. There could be market makers willing to provide liquidity which would make trade entry easier.</li>
</ul>


The premium of Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) to TSMC (2330 TT) has dropped from 10% to nearly parity in slightly less than a month.
There is still no headroom available on the ADR and we expect the premium to move higher once the selling on the ADR is complete.
The SGX has recently launched single stock futures on Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US). There could be market makers willing to provide liquidity which would make trade entry easier.


TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Position for ADR Premium Expansion

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger</li>
<li>An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger
An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy

TSMC (2330 TT) has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?


The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel's Analyst Day last week set forth unhittable revenue growth targets</li>
<li>Capex and Gross Margin guidance make no sense...Intel should've reset gross margin expectations...why it is still a good short.</li>
<li>Neutral (meaning 0) FCF through 2025 is a BS...if Western governments don't cover capex, FCF will be negative, potentially hitting the dividend since buybacks are eliminated for the near future. </li>
</ul>


Intel's Analyst Day last week set forth unhittable revenue growth targets
Capex and Gross Margin guidance make no sense...Intel should've reset gross margin expectations...why it is still a good short.
Neutral (meaning 0) FCF through 2025 is a BS...if Western governments don't cover capex, FCF will be negative, potentially hitting the dividend since buybacks are eliminated for the near future. 


Intel Analyst Day: Still a Top (Funding) Short

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To our understanding, UMC and Samsung have dealt the 28nm wafer demand and have lifted 28nm wafer price in 2Q22.</li>
<li>We think it’s possible to lift the wafer price again in 2H22 if TSMC decides to further lift wafer price recently.</li>
<li>Entering the 5G era, there could be more demand in several aspects, like data storage, data transmission and processing, smartphone, and PC/NB upgrade and etc.</li>
</ul>


To our understanding, UMC and Samsung have dealt the 28nm wafer demand and have lifted 28nm wafer price in 2Q22.
We think it’s possible to lift the wafer price again in 2H22 if TSMC decides to further lift wafer price recently.
Entering the 5G era, there could be more demand in several aspects, like data storage, data transmission and processing, smartphone, and PC/NB upgrade and etc.


UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): Although It Could Be ~1% ASP Changed Only, but the Price Is Lifted in 2Q22.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.

We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 is targeting shipment of around 30-40mn sets in 2022, and Dimensity 9000 is targeting shipment of 5-10mn...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Position for ADR Premium Expansion

TSM US now trades at close to parity vs 2330 TT. Large volumes have traded on the ADR recently which has driven the premium lower. Recently...

Brian Freitas

The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

Samsung Electronics' believes that foundry will be a key point of future diversification and growth but it seems they have run into a problem. ...

Ken S. Kim

Intel Analyst Day: Still a Top (Funding) Short

Intel's recent analyst day was confirmatory that it has entered the IBM zone - an inability to reset long term expectations makes it a perma...

Aaron Gabin

UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): Although It Could Be ~1% ASP Changed Only, but the Price Is Lifted in 2Q22.

Considering Samsung 28nm demand fraction to UMC’s total revenue, we estimate UMC's price should be lifted for ~1% and GM might increase to be ~41%...

Patrick Liao

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