Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.</li>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.</li>
<li>Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  </li>
</ul>


ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.
The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.
Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.</li>
<li>Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  </li>
<li>The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.
Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  
The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +13.5% ADR Premium, Historically High Spread Represents Short Opportunity</li>
<li>UMC: -0.9% ADR Discount, Results Tomorrow Could Open Up Trade Opportunity</li>
<li>ASE: +9.1% Premium, Historically High But Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +13.5% ADR Premium, Historically High Spread Represents Short Opportunity
UMC: -0.9% ADR Discount, Results Tomorrow Could Open Up Trade Opportunity
ASE: +9.1% Premium, Historically High But Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,475.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,322mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc, Global Unichip, Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Largan Precision, Delta Elec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,475.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,322mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc, Global Unichip, Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Largan Precision, Delta Elec.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow

TSMC's ADR premium history suggests a short opportunity, while UMC's results tomorrow could open up a trade. Also, why waiting for ASE's premium...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

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ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

​ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow

​TSMC's ADR premium history suggests a short opportunity, while UMC's results tomorrow could open up a trade. Also, why waiting for ASE's premium...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

TSMC's ADR premium history suggests a short opportunity, while UMC's results tomorrow could open up a trade. Also, why waiting for ASE's premium...