'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. In addition, company data is cap-weight aggregated into Peer Group and Sector Relative Price Scores which can be used for allocation and timing. This insight will cover Sectors and Peer Groups; a forthcoming insight will update the list of overbought and oversold companies.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/735/original/2018-09-11SML2.png?1536816473" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERBOUGHT &amp; OVERSOLD SECTORS - Currently, three Sectors (Commercial Services, Consumer Services and Healthcare) are overbought, and two (Banks and Utilities) are oversold in terms of Relative Price Score.<div class="content-highlight">SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most-preferred sectors remain Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology. Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities. Our sector recommendations have an implicit 4 'unit' market short by being overweight five sectors and underweight nine and have 'outperformed' (gross of implementation costs) by 11.3% over the last three months and by 3.5% over the last month.</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/737/original/2018-09-13_14-33-09.png?1536816871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63737"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERBOUGHT PEER GROUPS - Currently, seventeen Peer Groups are 'overbought'.  Nine Peer Groups that were overbought at the end of May are no longer so - Beers, Wines &amp; Spirits, Paints, Safety Equipment, Wholesale-Household Equipment, Wholesale-Transport Equipment, Real Estate-Other Services, Software-Accounting &amp; Finance, Accounting Services and Investment Banking Services. Four Peer Groups have become overbought in the last three months - Telecom Engineering, IT Systems-Financial, Software-Development Services and Employment &amp; Staffing Services.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/738/original/2018-09-13_14-36-04.png?1536816987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63738"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERSOLD PEER GROUPS - Currently ten Peer Groups are 'oversold'. The Kanto Regional Banks and Industrial REITs Peer Groups have become oversold in this period while the Kyushu Regional Banks, Retail REITs and Marine Transportation Peer Groups are no longer oversold. <div class="content-highlight">PEER GROUP RECOMMENDATIONS - Long and short recommendations for both overbought and oversold Peer Groups as well as lists of most and least preferred Peer Groups and suggested longs and shorts for some of each of those are detailed below. </div>

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. In addition, company data is cap-weight aggregated into Peer Group and Sector Relative Price Scores which can be used for allocation and timing. This insight will cover Sectors and Peer Groups; a forthcoming insight will update the list of overbought and oversold companies.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERBOUGHT &amp; OVERSOLD SECTORS - Currently, three Sectors (Commercial Services, Consumer Services and Healthcare) are overbought, and two (Banks and Utilities) are oversold in terms of Relative Price Score.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most-preferred sectors remain Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology. Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities. Our sector recommendations have an implicit 4 'unit' market short by being overweight five sectors and underweight nine and have 'outperformed' (gross of implementation costs) by 11.3% over the last three months and by 3.5% over the last month.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERBOUGHT PEER GROUPS - Currently, seventeen Peer Groups are 'overbought'.  Nine Peer Groups that were overbought at the end of May are no longer so - Beers, Wines &amp; Spirits, Paints, Safety Equipment, Wholesale-Household Equipment, Wholesale-Transport Equipment, Real Estate-Other Services, Software-Accounting &amp; Finance, Accounting Services and Investment Banking Services. Four Peer Groups have become overbought in the last three months - Telecom Engineering, IT Systems-Financial, Software-Development Services and Employment &amp; Staffing Services.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERSOLD PEER GROUPS - Currently ten Peer Groups are 'oversold'. The Kanto Regional Banks and Industrial REITs Peer Groups have become oversold in this period while the Kyushu Regional Banks, Retail REITs and Marine Transportation Peer Groups are no longer oversold. PEER GROUP RECOMMENDATIONS - Long and short recommendations for both overbought and oversold Peer Groups as well as lists of most and least preferred Peer Groups and suggested longs and shorts for some of each of those are detailed below. 

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Sectors & Peer Groups

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

JAPAN AGGREGATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-declining-operating-cash-flow-to-curtail-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19403">Declining Operating Cash Flow to Curtail Investments</a> with the most recent quarterly reports issued earlier in the month.  This report will also cover the cash flow trends in some key sectors and larger capitalisation companies. OPERATING CASH FLOW YEN SENSITIVITY -  Operating Cash Flow (OCF) has now declined for two quarters in a row and remains very sensitive to changes in the US$/¥ exchange. To sustain aggregate OCF of more than ¥10t appears to requires a ¥/US$ rate of over ¥110. A continued fall in OCF in the coming quarters will result in much lower investment spending this fiscal year.CAPEX CONTRACTION - The last quarter has seen the most significant positive swing in Investing Cash Flow in the last two years. Positive amounts equate to reductions in fixed assets and/or inventories. This quarter’s investment cash flow correction is small and another bout of Yen weakness may make it short-lived, however, further Yen strength would result in a more prolonged pause in fixed asset investment similar to the ¥5.5t contraction in spending from 2015-Q3 to 2016-Q2.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/752/original/2018-05-30_10-12-57.png?1527642809" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53752"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>PEAK FREE CASH FLOW - It is highly unusual for Investing Cash Flow to contract when Operating Cash Flow exceeds ¥5t. The last quarter was the first time this has occurred since 2010. As a result, the 2018-Q1 Free Cash Flow of ¥13.2t was the highest in any quarter in the last thirty years. This bodes well for future investment spending, should the corporate outlook improve, but suggests an alarming degree of pessimism in Japanese boardrooms. SHAREHOLDER’S SHARE - 60% of the cumulative ¥95t of Free Cash Flow has been allocated to shareholders in either dividends or share buybacks, with the latter comprising only 4% of the total. After another recent spate of debt reduction, the cash pile has grown to ¥35t, although this is still less than 10% of current Net Assets.    FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION - Japanese corporates have maintained an aggregate amount of gross debt of between ¥78t and ¥92t for the last seven years despite liquid assets having risen by over ¥50t over that period. With cash &amp; marketable securities now one-third of total net assets and with, it seems, a smaller investment appetite, more debt-reduction can be expected.RETURN TO SHARE BUYBACKS - Q1 is a quiet quarter for dividends which peak in Q2 and Q4 in each year. However, Japanese companies completed net stock buybacks of ¥0.8t last quarter after two-quarters of net fundraising, helped, no doubt, by the weaker market conditions during the period.SECTOR &amp; COMPANY CASH FLOW TRENDS - 60% of this quarter's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) occurred in just five sectors - Utilities, Construction, Autos, Real Estate and Telecoms.  The top 26 companies accounted for 99.5% of the total with the remaining effectively netting off to zero.  In the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>, the Operating Cash Flow for the quarter exceed 50% of current market capitalisation. We also look at cash flow trends for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7896" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/753" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/751/original/2018-05-30_08-52-23.png?1527640472" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53751"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">EXPORT VOLUME GROWTH FALLS TO ZERO - Japan's export volumes have recently fallen from the double-digit year-on-year growth levels at the start of the year to close to zero. This sharp contraction in exports, when combined with the recent sustained upward move in domestic labour costs, explains the muted initial forecasts offered by March year-end companies for the current fiscal year. Slowing export volumes are also responsible for the third largest quarterly inventory correction in seven years and the most significant such correction in a quarter when aggregate Operating Cash Flows exceeded ¥5 trillion. JAPAN INC. SIGNALS A CYCLE PEAK -  Quarterly Free Cash Flow in the quarter ended March 2018 exceeded ¥13 trillion - the highest level for quarterly Free Cash Flow in seven years. High levels of Free Cash Flow are ordinarily consistent with peaks in the business cycle as cash is reaped from previous investments while management is reluctant to make new commitments. Japan Inc.'s abrupt application of the investment 'brakes' suggests a significant degree of pessimism regarding the business outlook. Absent a further significant decline in the Yen, this outlook appears to be justified. </div>

JAPAN AGGREGATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates Declining Operating Cash Flow to Curtail Investments with the most recent quarterly reports issued earlier in the month.  This report will also cover the cash flow trends in some key sectors and larger capitalisation companies. OPERATING CASH FLOW YEN SENSITIVITY -  Operating Cash Flow (OCF) has now declined for two quarters in a row and remains very sensitive to changes in the US$/¥ exchange. To sustain aggregate OCF of more than ¥10t appears to requires a ¥/US$ rate of over ¥110. A continued fall in OCF in the coming quarters will result in much lower investment spending this fiscal year.CAPEX CONTRACTION - The last quarter has seen the most significant positive swing in Investing Cash Flow in the last two years. Positive amounts equate to reductions in fixed assets and/or inventories. This quarter’s investment cash flow correction is small and another bout of Yen weakness may make it short-lived, however, further Yen strength would result in a more prolonged pause in fixed asset investment similar to the ¥5.5t contraction in spending from 2015-Q3 to 2016-Q2.Source: Japan AnalyticsPEAK FREE CASH FLOW - It is highly unusual for Investing Cash Flow to contract when Operating Cash Flow exceeds ¥5t. The last quarter was the first time this has occurred since 2010. As a result, the 2018-Q1 Free Cash Flow of ¥13.2t was the highest in any quarter in the last thirty years. This bodes well for future investment spending, should the corporate outlook improve, but suggests an alarming degree of pessimism in Japanese boardrooms. SHAREHOLDER’S SHARE - 60% of the cumulative ¥95t of Free Cash Flow has been allocated to shareholders in either dividends or share buybacks, with the latter comprising only 4% of the total. After another recent spate of debt reduction, the cash pile has grown to ¥35t, although this is still less than 10% of current Net Assets.    FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION - Japanese corporates have maintained an aggregate amount of gross debt of between ¥78t and ¥92t for the last seven years despite liquid assets having risen by over ¥50t over that period. With cash &amp; marketable securities now one-third of total net assets and with, it seems, a smaller investment appetite, more debt-reduction can be expected.RETURN TO SHARE BUYBACKS - Q1 is a quiet quarter for dividends which peak in Q2 and Q4 in each year. However, Japanese companies completed net stock buybacks of ¥0.8t last quarter after two-quarters of net fundraising, helped, no doubt, by the weaker market conditions during the period.SECTOR &amp; COMPANY CASH FLOW TRENDS - 60% of this quarter's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) occurred in just five sectors - Utilities, Construction, Autos, Real Estate and Telecoms.  The top 26 companies accounted for 99.5% of the total with the remaining effectively netting off to zero.  In the case of Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP), the Operating Cash Flow for the quarter exceed 50% of current market capitalisation. We also look at cash flow trends for Bridgestone (5108 JP), Honda (7267 JP), Taisei Corp (1801 JP), and Kyocera (6971 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsEXPORT VOLUME GROWTH FALLS TO ZERO - Japan's export volumes have recently fallen from the double-digit year-on-year growth levels at the start of the year to close to zero. This sharp contraction in exports, when combined with the recent sustained upward move in domestic labour costs, explains the muted initial forecasts offered by March year-end companies for the current fiscal year. Slowing export volumes are also responsible for the third largest quarterly inventory correction in seven years and the most significant such correction in a quarter when aggregate Operating Cash Flows exceeded ¥5 trillion. JAPAN INC. SIGNALS A CYCLE PEAK -  Quarterly Free Cash Flow in the quarter ended March 2018 exceeded ¥13 trillion - the highest level for quarterly Free Cash Flow in seven years. High levels of Free Cash Flow are ordinarily consistent with peaks in the business cycle as cash is reaped from previous investments while management is reluctant to make new commitments. Japan Inc.'s abrupt application of the investment 'brakes' suggests a significant degree of pessimism regarding the business outlook. Absent a further significant decline in the Yen, this outlook appears to be justified. 

Japan Inc. Applies the Brakes - 1st Quarterly Capex Contraction Since 2016 Signals a Cycle Peak

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Macroeconomics

Japan's aggregate Net Income margin increased from 2.7% in 2012 to 4.6% in 2016. While this margin expansion is a great thing, asset efficiency (asset turns) is basically flat over the same period.  We went back and compared average net income margins in 2011 - 2013 to 2016 and found that only 4 out of 19 sectors saw a decline in net income margins. For TOPIX 500, aggregate average net income margin from 2011-2013 was 3.2% compared to 4.6% in 2016. At the company level, 74% of TOPIX 500 saw an…

Japan's aggregate Net Income margin increased from 2.7% in 2012 to 4.6% in 2016. While this margin expansion is a great thing, asset efficiency (asset turns) is basically flat over the same period.  We went back and compared average net income margins in 2011 - 2013 to 2016 and found that only 4 out of 19 sectors saw a decline in net income margins. For TOPIX 500, aggregate average net income margin from 2011-2013 was 3.2% compared to 4.6% in 2016. At the company level, 74% of TOPIX 500 saw an…

Margins Expanding in Japan but Asset Efficiency Is Not Improving....

Equity Bottom-Up

With a couple weeks left before year-end Earnings Season really starts up there is still time for companies to adjust their full-year guidance. We went back over the last 7 years to find which companies historical wait until the last minute to adjust numbers. To eliminate noise we only screened for Net Income guidance changes greater than absolute 10%.<h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Earnings Results were always announced in May (Do want to pick up any rollovers)</li>
<li>Only March year-end names</li>
<li>The guidance change is…</li>
</ol>

With a couple weeks left before year-end Earnings Season really starts up there is still time for companies to adjust their full-year guidance. We went back over the last 7 years to find which companies historical wait until the last minute to adjust numbers. To eliminate noise we only screened for Net Income guidance changes greater than absolute 10%.Screen Criteria
Earnings Results were always announced in May (Do want to pick up any rollovers)
Only March year-end names
The guidance change is…


Which Companies in Japan Revise Guidance in April....

Japan

TAISEI CORPORATION is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings such as condominiums and single-family houses.  Taisei also performs civil engineering works for roads.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates real estate, resort development, and financial businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taisei Corp (1801 JP)

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Sectors & Peer Groups

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Inc. Applies the Brakes - 1st Quarterly Capex Contraction Since 2016 Signals a Cycle Peak

JAPAN AGGREGATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates Declining Operating Cash Flow to Curtail Investments with the most recent quarterly reports...

Campbell Gunn

Margins Expanding in Japan but Asset Efficiency Is Not Improving....

Japan's aggregate Net Income margin increased from 2.7% in 2012 to 4.6% in 2016. While this margin expansion is a great thing, asset efficiency...

Custom Products Group

Which Companies in Japan Revise Guidance in April....

With a couple weeks left before year-end Earnings Season really starts up there is still time for companies to adjust their full-year guidance. We...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)