Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer. It seems that such a prior announcement of a rights offering has become a common practice in the local market.</li>
<li>This event offers suitable conditions for arb trading as Taihan Electric Wire is a member of KOSPI 200, making itself eligible for short-selling.</li>
<li>So we may set up our trading approach from two perspectives.</li>
</ul>


Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer. It seems that such a prior announcement of a rights offering has become a common practice in the local market.
This event offers suitable conditions for arb trading as Taihan Electric Wire is a member of KOSPI 200, making itself eligible for short-selling.
So we may set up our trading approach from two perspectives.


Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offer Pre-Announcement Arb Event

<p>We now have KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalancing completed. What does this mean? It means we have new members of the so-called Korea Short 350 as these new additions are now eligible for short selling.</p><p>So, let's look at their current loan balance, often serving as a leading indicator of short-selling intensity in the short term.</p>

We now have KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalancing completed. What does this mean? It means we have new members of the so-called Korea Short 350 as these new additions are now eligible for short selling.So, let's look at their current loan balance, often serving as a leading indicator of short-selling intensity in the short term.

Korea Short 350 New Members: KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Adds

What would be a real-world passive money size tracking KOSPI 200?My latest estimation is ₩80 trillion, and here is a breakdown of my estimation.ETFsWe currently have 17 local ETFs mirroring KOSPI 200, including KODEX 200 (₩5.5T) and TIGER 200 (₩2.3T). Their combined market value amounts to ₩16.5T.







Local ETFs directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Ticker
Market cap as of today (June 1, 2021)


YURIE TREX 200 ETF
108590
₩13.0B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 Total Return ETF
294400
₩493.3B


Kyobo AXA Power K200 ETF
152870
₩28.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 Total Return ETF
278530
₩1,470.5B


Mirae Asset TIGER Leverage ETF
123320
₩32.1B


KIM KINDEX Leverage ETF
152500
₩11.1B


HANWHA Arirang 200 ETF
152100
₩853.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 ETF
069500
₩5,446.8B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 ETF
069660
₩542.8B


Mirae Asset TIGER200 ETF
102110
₩2,283.6B


KIM KINDEX 200 ETF
105190
₩751.7B


Samsung KODEX Leverage Derivatives ETF
122630
₩1,722.2B


KB KBSTAR 200 Securities ETF
148020
₩1,168.8B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200 ETF
293180
₩655.5B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200TR ETF
332930
₩222.4B


KIM KINDEX 200TotalReturn ETF
332500
₩340.5B


Shinhan SMART 200 Total Return ETF
295040
₩449.9B


- Total
-
₩16,486.4B

Source: KRX

Index funds39 local index funds are currently tracking KOSPI 200, including the Kyobo AXA Power Index with an AUM of ₩1.3T. Their combined AUM totals ₩3.7T.






Local Index funds directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Assets under management as of today (June 1, 2021)


Kiwoom New Frontier Index Plus αF- 1 [Equity-Derivative] A1
₩17.5B


Kiwoom e-Alpha Index 1 [Equity]
₩11.0B


Kiwoom Korea Index 1 [Equity] C-e
₩28.1B


Kiwoom Korea Happy Pension Index 1 [Equity]
₩16.6B


Korea Investment Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩28.4B


BNKK200 Index (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩25.4B


KB Star Power Index Korea [Equity-Derivative] C-E
₩18.3B


Hungkuk Index Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-f
₩17.9B


Daishin Index Value [Equity] ClassC-F
₩130.5B


Mirae Asset Market Plus [Equity] Type F
₩11.8B


Consus Moebius 1 200 Index (Equity-Derivative) Class C
₩11.0B


IBKKOSPI200 Index 1 [Equity] Type A
₩39.8B


Truston Index Alpha s [Equity-Derivative] C
₩14.5B


Hyundai KOSPI 200 Index Type C-f
₩10.2B


DGB Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] A
₩27.6B


Woori KOSPI200 Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassC-e
₩49.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 2 [Equity] ClassA1
₩22.5B


East Spring Korea Index [Equity] Class C-F
₩207.0B


Mirae KOSPI 200 Index 1 [Equity] Type C-e
₩164.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 [Equity] Class A 1
₩332.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 3 [Equity] ClassA
₩12.6B


Daishin KOSPI200 Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassC1
₩64.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩1,277.0B


DB Index Haeohreum Alpha [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩15.5B


Hana UBS Umbrella New Index K- 1 [Equity-Derivative] ClassC
₩12.9B


Samsung Retirement Pension Index 1 [Equity] C
₩138.7B


Korea Investment &amp; Cruise F2.8 Index [Equity] (A)
₩14.1B


KB Index Annuity [Equity] C
₩20.6B


Samsung Index Alpha 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩18.6B


Samsung Pension Korea Index [Equity-Derivative]
₩34.6B


Samsung Classic Index Pensions 1 [Equity] _C
₩180.6B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity] C-E class
₩88.8B


Samsung Premium Index A [Equity-Derivative]
₩74.2B


Hanwha Smart ++ Index [Equity] C / C2β
₩240.4B


Feynman Index Premium 2 [Equity-Derivative]
₩18.8B


Samsung Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (C 1)
₩49.7B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity-Derivative] C
₩54.1B


NH-Amundi Premier Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩26.7B


Hyundai Investment Index 1 Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-I
₩135.5B


- Total
₩3,660.7B

Source: KG Zeroin

National Pension Service (NPS)Now, we need to add NPS. In 2019, the internal (direct) management accounted for 54.15% of the domestic equity, whereas the external (consignment) management was responsible for 45.85%. Only the internal management operates passive funds, which accounted for 33.75% of the total domestic equity.The total domestic equity at March-end of this year was ₩178.7T. Assuming the same 33.75% weight for the passive in the domestic equity churns out ₩60.3T for the local passive funds within the NPS. An assumed 70% of this ₩60.3T would be ₩42.2T, supposedly tracking KOSPI 200. 70% should be a conservative assumption as their BM index for domestic equity is KOSPI.









NPS asset allocation
FY2019, amount
FY2019, weight
FY2021 March, amount
Directly mirroring KOSPI 200 at an assumed 70% of the total passive funds


Internal (direct) management
₩71,612.1B





- Active
₩26,976.9B
20.40%




- Passive
₩44,635.2B
33.75%
₩60,301.4B
₩42,211.0B


External (consignment) management
₩60,641.9B





- Active
₩60,641.9B
45.85%




- Passive
₩0.0B
0.00%




Total domestic Equity
₩132,254.0B

₩178,673.0B


Source: NPS

Variable insurance index fundsLastly, we have variable insurance index funds. A vast majority of the local variable insurance index funds are tracking KOSPI 200. I don't have the latest figure, but the FY2019 year-end data (compiled by YONHAP INFOMAX) shows that the combined AUM of these funds amounted to about ₩17~18T.Given the relatively flat yearly growth among the local insurance companies, I don't expect to see a substantial change in the combined AUM last year. So, ₩18T would be a safe estimate.Adding all four spits out ₩80.4T, supposedly total local passive money mirroring KOSPI 200 at this point.
₩80T estimation breakdown

ETFs
₩16.5T


Index funds
₩3.7T


National Pension Service - Passive
₩42.2T


Variable Insurance Index funds
₩18.0T


 - Total
₩80.4T

Source: KG Zeroin, KRX, NPS, &amp; YONHAP INFOMAX


Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

<div><p>Korea has mainly three types of local institutions passively mirroring KOSPI 200.</p></div><div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<li><strong>ETFs and conventional index funds (40%)</strong></li>
<li><strong>Variable insurance index funds (30%)</strong></li>
<li><strong>NPS-financed index funds (30%)</strong></li>
</ol></div><div><p>We can track local institutional trade volume by 9 types daily. The KRX offers the data.</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>ETFs and conventional index funds fall into the category of <strong>Public Offering Fund</strong>.</li>
<li>NPS-financed index funds are grouped in <strong>Pension Fund</strong>. </li>
<li>Variable insurance index funds are categorized as <strong>Insurance</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Typically, the NPS-financed index funds and variable insurance index funds begin to rebalance their portfolios as early as two weeks ahead of the application date. The public offering funds, mostly ETFs, concentrate on the last day, understandably minimizing the tracking error.</p>
<p>NPS and Insurance combined account for about 60% of the total local passive money mirroring KOSPI 200.</p>
<p>So, I tracked the net trade of Pension and Insurance on May 25~28 for each of the additions and deletions to gauge the remaining capacity of the passive flow impact. The KRX announced the rebalancing results on May 25, which should have been the starting point of the passive flow by Pension and Insurance.</p>
</div>

Korea has mainly three types of local institutions passively mirroring KOSPI 200.
ETFs and conventional index funds (40%)
Variable insurance index funds (30%)
NPS-financed index funds (30%)
We can track local institutional trade volume by 9 types daily. The KRX offers the data.

ETFs and conventional index funds fall into the category of Public Offering Fund.
NPS-financed index funds are grouped in Pension Fund. 
Variable insurance index funds are categorized as Insurance.

Typically, the NPS-financed index funds and variable insurance index funds begin to rebalance their portfolios as early as two weeks ahead of the application date. The public offering funds, mostly ETFs, concentrate on the last day, understandably minimizing the tracking error.
NPS and Insurance combined account for about 60% of the total local passive money mirroring KOSPI 200.
So, I tracked the net trade of Pension and Insurance on May 25~28 for each of the additions and deletions to gauge the remaining capacity of the passive flow impact. The KRX announced the rebalancing results on May 25, which should have been the starting point of the passive flow by Pension and Insurance.


KOSPI 200 Rebalancing: Local Passive Flow Tracking

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.</p><p>There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7699:1" rel="noopener">HDC Holdings (012630 KS)</a> will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.</p><p>So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.</p><p>The inclusions and exclusions are:</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 222pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 273pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>302440.KS</td>
<td>SK Bioscience Co Ltd</td>
<td>005180.KS</td>
<td>Binggrae Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>006040.KS</td>
<td>Dongwon Industries Co Ltd</td>
<td>005610.KS</td>
<td>SPC Samlip Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298050.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp</td>
<td>006390.KS</td>
<td>Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298020.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung TNC Corp</td>
<td>008350.KS</td>
<td>Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><em><strong>361610.KS</strong></em></td>
<td><em><strong>SK IE Technology Co Ltd</strong></em></td>
<td>009410.KS</td>
<td>Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>001440.KS</td>
<td>Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd</td>
<td>018250.KS</td>
<td>Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>145990.KS</td>
<td>Samyang Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><em><strong>012630.KS</strong></em></td>
<td><em><strong>HDC Holdings Co Ltd</strong></em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.</p><p>With short selling limited to the constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.</p>

The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If SK IE Technology (361610 KS) meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then HDC Holdings (012630 KS) will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.The inclusions and exclusions are:








Inclusions
Exclusions


Code
Name
Code
Name


302440.KS
SK Bioscience Co Ltd
005180.KS
Binggrae Co Ltd


006040.KS
Dongwon Industries Co Ltd
005610.KS
SPC Samlip Co Ltd


298050.KS
Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp
006390.KS
Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd


298020.KS
Hyosung TNC Corp
008350.KS
Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd


361610.KS
SK IE Technology Co Ltd
009410.KS
Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd


001440.KS
Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd
018250.KS
Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd




145990.KS
Samyang Corp




012630.KS
HDC Holdings Co Ltd


There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.With short selling limited to the constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.

South Korea

CS Wind Corporation operates as a wind tower company. The Company manufactures and exports steel wind towers, while also offering aluminum platforms for wind towers. CS Wind extends its products and services globally.

Hyosung Heavy Industries Corporation manufactures electrical power equipment. The Company produces and sells transformers, generators, and other related products. Hyosung Heavy Industries markets its products worldwide.

Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp (298040 KS)

LS Corp is a holding company, which operated subsidiaries including LS Industrial Systems, LS Cable, LS-Nikko Copper and LS Mtron.

Iljin Electric Co Ltd manufactures and sells electric products.  The Company's products include electric fittings, distribution lines, electrical equipment, and automated power distribution systems.  Iljin also builds power cable systems and produces aluminum casting products used in automobiles.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates communications and financial businesses.

Shinsung Delta Tech Co., Ltd. manufactures electronic components. The company's product includes control panel, top cover, drum tub, and blower for washing machine and air conditioner.  The Company also produces automobile part and light guide panel for Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD).

Cheryong Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells steel support equipment and components used for power supply and transmission.  The Company also produces transformers and synthetic resin products, including electric wire covering.

L&F Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures battery materials. The Company produces and sells cathode active materials, anode materials, electrolyte, separator, and other products. L&F markets its products throughout Korea.

Korea Electric Terminal Co., Ltd. specializes in manufacturing a wide range of connectors used in automobiles, home appliances, and telecommunications devices, The Company also produces fiber-optic products, such as jumper cord assemblies, attenuators, couplers, and multiplexers.

SPG Co., Ltd, manufactures various types of industrial motors.  The Company's main products are induction motors, reversible motors, electromagnetic motors, shaded pole motors, and condenser run motors.

Vitzrocell Co., Ltd. manufactures and exports industrial and consumer speciality batteries, such as lithium and manganis batteris.

Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures wires, cables, and metal products. The Company holds patents in optical fiber coating technology and produces optical fiber cables in the United States.  Furukawa Electric's metal products include aluminum cans, air conditioner parts, and shape memory alloys.

Xi'an Shaangu Power Co., Ltd. provides solutions and services to turbomachinery systems.  The Company's products include turbine compressers, industrial process energy recovery systems, and turbo blower units.

Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells electronic components.  The Company's products include aluminum electrolytic capacitors, surface mounted components and polymer.

Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co,Ltd. (002484 CH)

Zhongshan Broad Ocean Motor Co Ltd manufactures AC and DC electric motors.

Zhongshan Broad Ocean Motor Co., (002249 CH)

Array Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures solar tracking systems. The Company offers solar tracking equipment to utilities, corporations, small businesses, and homeowners. Array Technologies serves customers worldwide.

Bizlink Holding Inc., manufactures connectors, cable assemblies, as well as wire harnesses. Their main products include HDMI connectors, display port connectors, solar cables, as well as halogen-free power cords.

HBL Power Systems Ltd. manufactures power systems consisting of batteries and related power electronic products.  The Company makes nickel cadmium pocket plate batteries and thyristor control power convertors.  HBL's products are used in defense, railways, petrochemical, steel, power generation and telecommunication industries.

Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Company Limited produces and sells wind towers and wind tower parts.

Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures electrical machinery. The Company produces wind turbines, pumps, electrical wheel trucks, electric mining locomotives, industrial locomotives, light rail cars, elevators, hydraulic presses, and ball mills.

Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co,Ltd. (600416 CH)

GS Yuasa Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Yuasa Corp. and Japan Storage Battery Co., Ltd.  The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries, which manufactures storage batteries used for automobiles, motorcycles, computers, and lighting equipment.

Taihan Electric Wire Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of cables and wires, such as power, communications, copper rod, and enameled cables and wires.  The Company also produces stainless steel sheets and aluminum products including coils, sheets, and plates.  In addition, Taihan Electric offers information and communications equipment, such as optical transmission and network systems.

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Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)

Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offer Pre-Announcement Arb Event

Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer, which offers suitable conditions for arb trading as it is eligible for short-selling. We...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short 350 New Members: KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Adds

We now have new members of the so-called Korea Short 350 for short-selling eligibility. They are new additions to KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150. This...

Sanghyun Park

Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

This post provides a detailed breakdown of how I arrive at an estimated ₩80 trillion for the passive money tracking KOSPI 200.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing: Local Passive Flow Tracking

This post tracks the net trade of Pension and Insurance on May 25~28 for each of the KOSPI 200 additions and deletions to gauge the remaining...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Spot On!

There are 5 adds and 7 deletes for the KOSPI200 (as we forecast). There could be another add/delete if SK IE Tech gets index Fast Entry. Inclusions...

Brian Freitas

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