Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Swire is trading at a deep discount and does show an increasing probability of holding the key 70 as a number of technical signals start to bottom.Daily RSI descending wedge is expected to mature into weakness on a secondary slide to the 30 level while holding noted support at 26. RSI rally resistance at 45 will act as a momentum trigger on the way back up. Odds favor  the RSI not confirming a fresh price low in Swire. The daily MACD cycle has a bit more room to drift lower and base.Things look…

Swire is trading at a deep discount and does show an increasing probability of holding the key 70 as a number of technical signals start to bottom.Daily RSI descending wedge is expected to mature into weakness on a secondary slide to the 30 level while holding noted support at 26. RSI rally resistance at 45 will act as a momentum trigger on the way back up. Odds favor  the RSI not confirming a fresh price low in Swire. The daily MACD cycle has a bit more room to drift lower and base.Things look…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15081" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1">Jardine Strategic Hldgs Ltd (JS SP)</a>’s MSCI inclusion at the end of February, after a brief respite, it has continued to outperform cross-holder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1">Jardine Matheson Hldgs Ltd (JM SP)</a>. The simple ratio (JM/JS) and the NAV discount spread have now fallen to near-on five-year lows.The key reason for Strategic's accelerated move, specifically over the past week, likely hinges off short covering.Below the fold, I briefly touch on recent developments and offer suggestions on what action to take at current levels.

Following Jardine Strategic Hldgs Ltd (JS SP)’s MSCI inclusion at the end of February, after a brief respite, it has continued to outperform cross-holder Jardine Matheson Hldgs Ltd (JM SP). The simple ratio (JM/JS) and the NAV discount spread have now fallen to near-on five-year lows.The key reason for Strategic's accelerated move, specifically over the past week, likely hinges off short covering.Below the fold, I briefly touch on recent developments and offer suggestions on what action to take at current levels.

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

For full-year 2016, Swire Pacific reported underlying profit of HKD 3.1 billion, down 69% year on year. Underlying EPS decreased to HKD 2.04, from HKD 6.58 a year ago. Excluding the revaluation, impairment, and disposal gains and losses, the underlying profit was HKD 5 billion, 20% below our estimate of HKD 6.3 billion. The company declared a full year dividend of HKD 2.10 per share, down 46% from 2015. Net gearing was 23.5%, up 90 basis points from the end of 2015.The poor results were mostly due to weaker-than-expected results from Swire Properties and a large miss from Cathay Pacific. Based on the shortfall seen across all divisions, we adjusted our model assumptions accordingly, resulting in our fair value estimate decreasing to HKD 78 per share from HKD 80 . We maintain our no-moat rating for the company.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

For full-year 2016, Swire Pacific reported underlying profit of HKD 3.1 billion, down 69% year on year. Underlying EPS decreased to HKD 2.04, from HKD 6.58 a year ago. Excluding the revaluation, impairment, and disposal gains and losses, the underlying profit was HKD 5 billion, 20% below our estimate of HKD 6.3 billion. The company declared a full year dividend of HKD 2.10 per share, down 46% from 2015. Net gearing was 23.5%, up 90 basis points from the end of 2015.The poor results were mostly due to weaker-than-expected results from Swire Properties and a large miss from Cathay Pacific. Based on the shortfall seen across all divisions, we adjusted our model assumptions accordingly, resulting in our fair value estimate decreasing to HKD 78 per share from HKD 80 . We maintain our no-moat rating for the company.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Full-Year Results a Miss on Continued Weakness Across Business Segments

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by <a href="https://www.controlrisks.com/en/about-us/our-experts/people/steve-wilford" target="_blank">Steve Wilford</a>, Senior Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by Steve Wilford, Senior Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks

Hong Kong

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

Sino Land Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, trades and invests in securities, and provides financing services. The Company also operates hotels and provides building management services.

CK Asset Holdings Limited operates real estate businesses. The Company provides real estate development, leasing, marketing, property management, and hotel serviced suite services domestically and internationally. CK Asset Holdings also operates real estate investment trust, aircraft leasing, and assets management businesses.

Swire Pacific Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses. Swire Pacific operates worldwide.

Hang Lung Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also manages parking lots. Hang Lung Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Tsim Sha Tsui Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and sells properties.  The Company also provides management services, operates hotels, trades securities, and provides financing services.

SM Prime Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in residential property, shopping malls, offices, hotels and convention centers development.

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines with a track record in developing large-scale, integrated, mixed-use, and sustainable estates. It offers a balanced and complementary mix of residential developments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and resorts, construction, property management and strategic investments.

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated provides real estate and investment management services.  The Company serves multinationals, corporations, institutions, occupiers, and investors from offices in markets located around the world. Jones Lang provides services such as tenant representation, property management, agency leasing, finance, and valuations.

Swire Pacific Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in the real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses.

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Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)

Swire 70 Base Line Rally Pivot

Swire is trading at a deep discount and does show an increasing probability of holding the key 70 as a number of technical signals start to...

Thomas Schroeder

Jardine Maths on Jardine Stratospheric

Following Jardine Strategic Hldgs Ltd (JS SP)’s MSCI inclusion at the end of February, after a brief respite, it has continued to outperform...

David Blennerhassett

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble...

Amareos

Full-Year Results a Miss on Continued Weakness Across Business Segments

For full-year 2016, Swire Pacific reported underlying profit of HKD 3.1 billion, down 69% year on year. Underlying EPS decreased to HKD 2.04, from...

Morningstar, Inc.

Top 5 Risks for Business in Asia Pacific

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by Steve...

Control Risks

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