Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last night, Swire Pacific announced it planned to sell its US Coca Cola Distribution business to its parent company. That means a Circular, an IFA Opinion, and an EGM.</li>
<li>I expect a September EGM and the Special Div to follow in Q4. While I find the price low, I expect the deal to be approved by Swire shareholders.</li>
<li>This deal has an effect on the Swire B/A ratio. Some may get it. Some may not. Makes sense to be ready. Swire A is cheap. Swire B is cheaper.</li>
</ul>


Last night, Swire Pacific announced it planned to sell its US Coca Cola Distribution business to its parent company. That means a Circular, an IFA Opinion, and an EGM.
I expect a September EGM and the Special Div to follow in Q4. While I find the price low, I expect the deal to be approved by Swire shareholders.
This deal has an effect on the Swire B/A ratio. Some may get it. Some may not. Makes sense to be ready. Swire A is cheap. Swire B is cheaper.


Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week. Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.
Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

<ul>
<li>In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> | <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.</li>
<li>Swire had been buying both every day. But they've been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.</li>
</ul>


In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
Swire had been buying both every day. But they've been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.


<ul>
<li>After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, Cathay Pacific (293 HK) gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.
Preceding my comments on Cathay and Swire Pacific (19 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

<ul>
<li>And on the 6th Day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> commenced its buyback. </li>
<li>It took until the 6th day for Swire to start its buyback, and now that it has started, we may have a little better idea of the parameters. And impact. </li>
<li>So far, they appear to be bending the rules a little, but it is still the way it should be. So there is still a trade here to do.</li>
</ul>


And on the 6th Day, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) commenced its buyback. 
It took until the 6th day for Swire to start its buyback, and now that it has started, we may have a little better idea of the parameters. And impact. 
So far, they appear to be bending the rules a little, but it is still the way it should be. So there is still a trade here to do.


Swire Buyback Update - It's On, and Regulatorily Constrained

Hong Kong

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

Sino Land Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, trades and invests in securities, and provides financing services. The Company also operates hotels and provides building management services.

CK Asset Holdings Limited operates real estate businesses. The Company provides real estate development, leasing, marketing, property management, and hotel serviced suite services domestically and internationally. CK Asset Holdings also operates real estate investment trust, aircraft leasing, and assets management businesses.

Swire Pacific Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses. Swire Pacific operates worldwide.

Hang Lung Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also manages parking lots. Hang Lung Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Tsim Sha Tsui Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and sells properties.  The Company also provides management services, operates hotels, trades securities, and provides financing services.

SM Prime Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in residential property, shopping malls, offices, hotels and convention centers development.

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines with a track record in developing large-scale, integrated, mixed-use, and sustainable estates. It offers a balanced and complementary mix of residential developments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and resorts, construction, property management and strategic investments.

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated provides real estate and investment management services.  The Company serves multinationals, corporations, institutions, occupiers, and investors from offices in markets located around the world. Jones Lang provides services such as tenant representation, property management, agency leasing, finance, and valuations.

Swire Pacific Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in the real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses.

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Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)

Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio

Swire Pacific announced the sale of its US Coca-Cola distribution business. That means cash inflow, improving the "quality" of the NAV, and there's...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

I prefer Pac here over Props, but it's not a high-conviction trade. Given the rebound, you could probably look to unwind a long Swire Pac (B) vs...

David Blennerhassett

Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only

Swire's buyback has been going on 5 months. They are now 65.6% done. A new development is that in the last ten days, they have only been buying B...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

I still like Swire Pac at 0.33x P/B, but it's had a great run after the buyback. If you had the trade on - long Swire Pac, Short Prop - I'd look to...

David Blennerhassett

Swire Buyback Update - It's On, and Regulatorily Constrained

Swire Pacific has started its buyback. The rules suggest they are constrained to buying 77 or Swire B shares for every 23 Swire As bought. They are...

Travis Lundy

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