New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported a strong 1H22 result with record underlying earnings, up +9% from a strong 1H21, ahead of our and consensus expectations</li><li>SUM also gave a confident message in relation to current demand and (lack of) impact from the ongoing correction in the residential housing market</li><li>SUM has increased EPS, NTA and assets by a factor of ~10x over the last decade and we expect it to grow earnings at a CAGR of &gt;10% straight through the current housing correction</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported a strong 1H22 result with record underlying earnings, up +9% from a strong 1H21, ahead of our and consensus expectationsSUM also gave a confident message in relation to current demand and (lack of) impact from the ongoing correction in the residential housing marketSUM has increased EPS, NTA and assets by a factor of ~10x over the last decade and we expect it to grow earnings at a CAGR of &gt;10% straight through the current housing correction

Summerset Group: 1H22 Result — What Housing Crash?

<ul><li>Summerset has reported a solid 1H22 result with underlying profit of NZ$82.5m and annuity EBITDA of NZ$44.1m</li><li>We believe the market will also focus on the strong opex growth of +29% YoY, which compares to revenue growth of +20% resulting in contracting EBITDA margins</li><li>Key focus on the call will be opex growth going forward and current trends for settlements.</li></ul>

Summerset has reported a solid 1H22 result with underlying profit of NZ$82.5m and annuity EBITDA of NZ$44.1mWe believe the market will also focus on the strong opex growth of +29% YoY, which compares to revenue growth of +20% resulting in contracting EBITDA marginsKey focus on the call will be opex growth going forward and current trends for settlements.

Summerset (SUM): 1H22 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Summerset reports its 1H22 result on 23 August 2022, the only aged care company that reports this earnings season</li><li>Key points of interest: Opex up +25% to NZ$100m in 2H21 versus 2H20; Resale margins; Demand Outlook</li><li>SUM may set the tone for the whole sector — key will be commentary around demand and pricing of ILUs</li></ul>

Summerset reports its 1H22 result on 23 August 2022, the only aged care company that reports this earnings seasonKey points of interest: Opex up +25% to NZ$100m in 2H21 versus 2H20; Resale margins; Demand OutlookSUM may set the tone for the whole sector — key will be commentary around demand and pricing of ILUs

Summerset Group: 1H22 Preview — Focus on Costs and Outlook

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group: 1H22 Result — What Housing Crash?

Summerset (SUM) reported a strong 1H22 result with record underlying earnings, up +9% from a strong 1H21, ahead of our and consensus expectations

Forsyth Barr

Summerset (SUM): 1H22 Result – Initial Impressions

Summerset has reported a solid 1H22 result with underlying profit of NZ$82.5m and annuity EBITDA of NZ$44.1m

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group: 1H22 Preview — Focus on Costs and Outlook

Summerset reports its 1H22 result on 23 August 2022, the only aged care company that reports this earnings season and we expect it to impact...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group: 1H22 Result — What Housing Crash?

Summerset (SUM) reported a strong 1H22 result with record underlying earnings, up +9% from a strong 1H21, ahead of our and consensus expectations

Forsyth Barr

Summerset (SUM): 1H22 Result – Initial Impressions

Summerset has reported a solid 1H22 result with underlying profit of NZ$82.5m and annuity EBITDA of NZ$44.1m

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group: 1H22 Preview — Focus on Costs and Outlook

Summerset reports its 1H22 result on 23 August 2022, the only aged care company that reports this earnings season and we expect it to impact...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index