New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summerset Group (SUM)<br>Q1 sales – our Impression</h2>
<p>SUM Q1 sales – strong new sales ahead of our expectations, resales broadly in-line but a smidgen below expectations assuming normal seasonality. However, given Omicron in full swing in Q1 and meaningful volatility we have zero concerns.</p>
<ul>
<li>167 new sales – up +38% YoY and 2nd strongest new sales quarter on record</li>
<li>112 resales – down -1% YoY. Solid but unspectacular.</li>
<li>New sales stock remains low – 251 uncontracted units versus 262 at the full year. Only 63 villas available nationwide which highlights the strong demand trends we have highlighted for a period of time.</li>
<li>Looking ahead – extrapolating historical Q1 sales seasonality suggests our FY22 resales number (499 units) appears broadly in-line (extrapolated number of 483 units). New sales run-rate is materially ahead of our forecasts (our forecast of 605 units versus extrapolated number of historical seasonality of 769 units) but inventory/build rate a likely constraint to this number, so main message is just that demand remains high.</li>
</ul>
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Summerset Group (SUM) Q1 sales – our Impression
SUM Q1 sales – strong new sales ahead of our expectations, resales broadly in-line but a smidgen below expectations assuming normal seasonality. However, given Omicron in full swing in Q1 and meaningful volatility we have zero concerns.

167 new sales – up +38% YoY and 2nd strongest new sales quarter on record
112 resales – down -1% YoY. Solid but unspectacular.
New sales stock remains low – 251 uncontracted units versus 262 at the full year. Only 63 villas available nationwide which highlights the strong demand trends we have highlighted for a period of time.
Looking ahead – extrapolating historical Q1 sales seasonality suggests our FY22 resales number (499 units) appears broadly in-line (extrapolated number of 483 units). New sales run-rate is materially ahead of our forecasts (our forecast of 605 units versus extrapolated number of historical seasonality of 769 units) but inventory/build rate a likely constraint to this number, so main message is just that demand remains high.



Summerset Group (SUM): Q1 Sales – Our Impression