IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. </li>
<li>The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a> precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. </li>
</ul>


The Arvida (ARV NZ) IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. 
The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. 


Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>, a leading retirement living and aged care provider, announced a Scheme from Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://www.arvida.co.nz/images/assets/38796/1/scheme+booklet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 25th September. Expected implementation on the 13th November.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Consideration of NZ$1.70/share is within the Independent Adviser’s valuation range at NZ$1.63 to NZ$1.94/share. Arvida's directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Scheme.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care provider, announced a Scheme from Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 25th September. Expected implementation on the 13th November.

The Scheme Consideration of NZ$1.70/share is within the Independent Adviser’s valuation range at NZ$1.63 to NZ$1.94/share. Arvida's directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Scheme.


Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak's Offer

<ul>
<li>On 22 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> entered a scheme implementation agreement with Stonepeak at NZ$1.70, a 65.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a> precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.9%/14.2%.  </li>
</ul>


On 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ) entered a scheme implementation agreement with Stonepeak at NZ$1.70, a 65.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.9%/14.2%.  


Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>, a leading retirement living and aged care service provider in New Zealand, <a href="https://www.arvida.co.nz/investors/nzx-releases/release/arvida-board-unanimously-recommends-stonepeak-acquisition-38581" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a Scheme from PE-outfit Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>The Offer has unanimous board support. ~18% of shares out are supportive. Standard Scheme voting applies. Consent from NZ's Overseas Investment Office also required. </li>
<li>A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 4Q24 with implementation in the same quarter. Optics are a tad opportunistic; but this looks priced to complete. </li>
</ul>



Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care service provider in New Zealand, announced a Scheme from PE-outfit Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed. 
The Offer has unanimous board support. ~18% of shares out are supportive. Standard Scheme voting applies. Consent from NZ's Overseas Investment Office also required. 
A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 4Q24 with implementation in the same quarter. Optics are a tad opportunistic; but this looks priced to complete. 


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> has a secular growth story underpinned by ageing population. Australia and New Zealand are projected to have 5.3 million people aged 75 and above by 2062.</li>
<li>Rising interest rate and falling property prices should limit the upside potential of property management companies, like Ryman. New Zealand's house prices are forecast to sink 9% this year.</li>
<li>Ryman’s site of the Moondah mansion in Mt Eliza, near Melbourne central business district is still under litigation.</li>
</ul>



Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) has a secular growth story underpinned by ageing population. Australia and New Zealand are projected to have 5.3 million people aged 75 and above by 2062.
Rising interest rate and falling property prices should limit the upside potential of property management companies, like Ryman. New Zealand's house prices are forecast to sink 9% this year.
Ryman’s site of the Moondah mansion in Mt Eliza, near Melbourne central business district is still under litigation.


Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside

Australia

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ AU)

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross...

Arun George

Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak's Offer

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 3.0%/15.4%.That's reasonable. Do run a ruler over other Kiwi retirement village plays such as Ryman...

David Blennerhassett

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70

The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the...

Arun George

Arvida (ARV NZ): Stonepeak's Offer

Assuming mid-Dec payment, this is trading at a reasonable gross/annualised spread of 4.9%/12.6%. Also run a ruler over other NZ peers such as...

David Blennerhassett

Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside

Ryman’s secular growth story is clouded by rising interest rate and falling property prices state. Resale income and unsold stock will be some of...

Tina Banerjee

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